Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 11- 13 April 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 13 April 2022): Indian stock market closed slightly higher during the week ended 8 April. The benchmark indices erased all weekly losses on Friday and managed to closed in the green after the announcement of the RBI policy decision. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unchanged the key rates as expected and sought to support economic growth even inflation edged higher amid geopolitical tension.
The coming week will be a truncated one, Indian markets will have only three trading sessions. Thursday and Friday markets will remain close on account of Mahavir Jayanti/Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and Good Friday. Next week, Indian markets will focus on the quarterly earnings and inflation data. The other key factors that are likely to impact the Indian stock market are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11 – 13 April 2022)- The key factors to watch out
Quarterly Earnings
The Q4 earnings season has just started, and the IT majors TCS and Infosys will announce their financial results for the quarter ending 31st March 2022, next week. According to a recent report, the IT sector’s revenue growth is expected to moderate in the Q4FY22, while margins are expected to take a hit due to continued high attrition. Traders having positions in the IT stocks need to closely monitor the quarterly results in the coming week, as volatility is expected in the IT space next week.
| Q4 FY22 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 11 Apr 2022 | TCS |
| 13 Apr 2022 | INFY |
| 16 Apr 2022 | HDFC Bank |
Domestic macroeconomic data
The government will announce inflation data for the month of March on Tuesday, 12 April. The CPI-based retail inflation for the month of February was 6.07 percent, already crossing the RBI’s upper threshold band (4%, +-2%). RBI in its last week’s policy meeting has recognized the higher inflation, due to geopolitical tension.
The Central Bank has also raised its projection to 5.7 percent in FY22-23 a sharp increase from 4.5 percent. The street is expecting an increase in the retail inflation rate for the month of March as compared to February. Traders need to remain cautious as the market is likely to react to inflation numbers on Wednesday.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 April 2022 | Industrial Production |
| 12 April 2022 | Inflation rate |
| 15 April 2022 | Balance of Trade |
| 15 April 2022 | Export /Import |
Russia- Ukraine War
It is more than a month now, Russia’s invasion which began on Feb 24, has forced more than 4 million people to flee abroad, killed or injured thousands, and left many people homeless. The European Union (EU) joined the US in imposing more sanctions on Russia after reports that Russian forces committed war crimes in Ukraine, killing civilians.
Though Russia has denied targetting civilians and calls a” special operation to demilitarise and “ denazify” its southern neighbor. Ukraine and Western nations have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for war. The waves of Western sanctions targetting Russian banks are hampering the country’s ability to conduct business, but efforts continue to be constrained by Europe’s dependency on Russian oil and gas.
The hope for peace talks has got dimmed now after Russia’s foreign minister said that the Ukrainian side has proposed a new draft deal that deviated from the earlier one. The uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine tension will make the domestic market choppy in the coming week too.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global markets mostly declined during the week ended 8 April. The market sentiments were subdued due to concern about monetary policy tightening by the major Central Banks, inflation worries, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the coming week, the macroeconomic data including the inflation rate for the month of March will remain focused on the global markets.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 11 April 22 | Inflation Rate March | China |
| 11 April 22 | GDP MoM FEB | GB |
| 11 April 22 | Industrial Production | GB |
| 11 April 22 | Balance of Trade | GB |
| 11 April 22 | PPI YoY March | Japan |
| 12 April 22 | Unemployment Rate | GB |
| 12 April 22 | Inflation Rate March | US |
| 13 April 22 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp | China |
| 13 April 22 | Inflation Rate March | GB |
| 13 April 22 | Retail Price Index | GB |
| 14 April 22 | Retail Sales March | US |
| 14 April 22 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 14 April 22 | Export and Import March | US |
| 15 April 22 | Unemployment Rate | China |
| 15 April 22 | Industrial Production | US |
Crude Oil Price
The Brent crude June futures fell 1.54 percent for the week ended 8 April. It has touched $109.90 as a weekly high and $98.50 per barrel as the low. The Fuel prices in India have gone up 14 times in the last two weeks, with the hikes occurring almost on a daily basis since March 23. The steep increase in diesel and petrol prices has led to a cascading effect with rising inflation.
Though Russia has given a discount on Crude oil prices, India imports around 1-2 percent from Russia whereas 85 percent of its crude requirement from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the US, further for purchasing Russian oil in bulk quantity the payment mechanism should be established. The recent attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia is another reason for the spike in crude oil prices. The volatility in crude oil will continue in the coming week, traders should remain cautious in building long positions in the markets.
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 17400 to 18150. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is positive.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 36200 to 39000. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Positive.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates.
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
India reported 1150 daily fresh covid cases in the last 24 hrs on 9 April. So far more than 185 cr covid doses administered in India. Meanwhile, the government on Friday announced to make available of booster doses for all adults from 10 April.
The covid-19 cases are increasing in foreign countries like China, Taiwan, Japan, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, the UK, etc. Several important cities are in lockdown in China due to a surge in covid infection. The lockdown and restrictions imposed due to the rise in covid cases have already impacted China, the second-largest economy in the world. Any positive development on this front can improve the market sentiments and vice versa.
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have again turned sellers in the Indian equity markets last week whereas Domestic Investors continued their buying spree. FIIs sold Rs 6337.53 crore while DIIs also bought Rs 4161.54 crore during the week ended 8 April 2022.
In the month of April, so far FIIs have sold Rs 4427.75 crore in the equity cash segment. This is the seventh month in a row the FIIs selling spree is continuing. Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 41000 crore from the Indian stock market in March and 1.48 lakh crore between Oct 2021 to March 2022.
Last Monday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman praised retail investors who supported the D-Street absorbing the FIIs outflow shock. FIIs have turned into sellers last week but DIIs and retail investors have supported the domestic market, In the coming week, we may not see any deep correction in the market if FIIs continue their selling spree.
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