Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15 – 19 April 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15 – 19 April 2024): Indian stock market indexes ended the holiday-shortened week, on a flat note. Sensex declined 3.2 points and closed at 74244.90, while Nifty ended edge higher by 5.7 points and settled at 22519.40. Both the key indices hit a fresh record high during the week. The weak global cues, FIIs selling, and rising crude oil prices amid fresh escalation in the Middle East hit the market sentiments during the week.
The upcoming week will be holiday-shortened, as NSE and BSE will remain shut on Wednesday, 17 April 2024 on account of Shri Ram Navami. Next week, the Q4 quarterly earnings will be in focus. The WPI inflation data, global cues, and geopolitical tension will be monitored closely and set the market direction for the week.
The macroeconomic data from various countries, crude oil prices, FIIs, and DII activity will also dictate the trend on the bourses in the upcoming week. The other key factors, that are likely to influence the domestic stock markets including stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week (15 – 19 April 2024)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Prediction
On Friday, the Nifty index resisted near the long-term trendline zone of 22750 levels and then slipped with a bearish candle formation on the daily chart. The Nifty index has maintained 22500 as the crucial support zone, as of now. The index would have 22000 as the major support level, below which the overall trend will become weak. In the upcoming week, the Nifty index could trade in the range of, 22100 and 22900 levels.
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty index has shown signs of topping out near the 49000 zone and with a red candle formation has slightly weakened the bias to maintain a cautious approach. The Bank Nifty index would have near-term support at around 48000 levels while a decisive breach above the 49100 zone can expect an uptrend movement for further rise. The Bank Nifty can trade in a weekly range of 47300-49800 levels in the upcoming week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
The economic data released after market hours on Friday showed that India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation has eased to a ten-month low at 4.85% in March from 5.09% in the previous month, while the expectation was 4.91%. Separately, the Index of Industrial Production reading rose to a four-month high at 5.7% in February, compared to 3.8% in January.
The country’s forex exchange reserve also surged $2.98 bn at a fresh all-time high of $648.56 billion as of April 5th, according to the latest data showed by the RBI on Friday. On Monday, investors will likely react positively to the robust economic data released during the weekend.
The wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data is slated on Monday during the market hours, other key economic data scheduled for the week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 15 April 2024 | WPI Inflation March |
| 15 April 2024 | Passanger Vehicales Sales March |
| 15 April 2024 | Balance of Trade Export & Import |
| 19 April 2024 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth |
| 19 April 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Q4 Corporate Earnings
The fourth quarterly earnings season began with the TCS results last week. IT stocks will be in focus on Monday, as TCS reported Q4 earnings on post-market hours last Friday. The IT major has reported upbeat quarterly earnings, its net profit rose 9% YoY to Rs 12434 crore in the fourth quarter, compared to 11392 in the last year, beating estimates. The strong deals and executions supported the company’s better-than-expected performance in Q4 results.
In the upcoming week, five Nifty50 companies will report their fourth-quarter results, find below the schedule.
| Q4FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 18th April 2024 | Infosys |
| 18th April 2024 | Bajaj Auto |
| 18th April 2024 | HDFC Life |
| 19th April 2024 | Wipro |
| 20th April 2024 | HDFC Bank |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes closed lower for the week ending on April 12th. The US and European indices mostly ended in the red, while Asian stock market indexes closed on a mixed note. The market sentiments were hit after US inflation data came hotter than expected in March and reduced the chances of interest rate cuts in the near term.
The global market sentiments were further hit due to a surge in crude oil prices, on a possible attack on Israel by Iran. The quarterly reports of top banks in the US disappointed investors after announcing a weak outlook on Net Interest Income (NII) this year. During the week, China’s release of lower-than-expected inflation readings and trade data disappointed investors.
You can also read – Global Stock Market Update: Weekly News and Insights ( 8- 12 April)
In the upcoming week, the global markets will closely monitor the escalation of geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran and its impact on crude oil prices. The Quarterly earnings and economic data will remain in focus and set the market direction for the global markets next week.
China’s first-quarter GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production readings will influence the markets, particularly after weak economic data released last week. In the US, corporate earnings, retail sales, and several Fed officials’ speeches scheduled for the week, will impact the global markets. Markets will closely monitor inflation readings from Europe and Japan in the upcoming week.
Geopolitical Tension
The global stock markets reacted negatively after the US official report on a possible attack on Israel by Iran on Friday, selloff in stocks was witnessed as investors sought safety in bonds and other safe-haven assets. The US volatility index CobeVIX spiked more than 16%, Oil prices surged and the US dollar strengthened.
On 14th April, the Israel-Iran conflict took a dramatic turn, after Iran launched a huge drone and missile attack on Israel, which was a major escalation in their ongoing conflict. The situation is likely to turn bad to worse as Israel is also preparing for its next attack on Iran. The Israeli military collaborated with the United States and other regional allies to counter and intercept the launches.
Global traders are continuously watching the escalating tension between Israel and Iran and are likely to shift their risky positions to safe-haven assets. If things escalate further we may see deeper corrections in the global markets.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 15 April 2024 | Machine Orders Feb | Japan |
| 15 April 2024 | Fed Logan Speech | US |
| 15 April 2024 | Industrial Production Feb | EA |
| 15 April 2024 | Retail Sales March | US |
| 15 April 2024 | Business Inventories Feb | US |
| 15 April 2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index April | US |
| 15 April 2024 | PBoC 1-year MLF Announcement | China |
| 16 April 2024 | Fed Daly Speech | US |
| 16 April 2024 | Housing Price Index March | China |
| 16 April 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Q1 | China |
| 16 April 2024 | Industrial Production March | China |
| 16 April 2024 | Retail Sales March | China |
| 16 April 2024 | Unemployment Rate March | China |
| 16 April 2024 | Unemployment Rate Feb | GB |
| 16 April 2024 | Balance of Tarde Feb | EA |
| 16 April 2024 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index April | EA |
| 16 April 2024 | Building Permits March | US |
| 16 April 2024 | Housing Starts March | US |
| 16 April 2024 | Industrial Production March | US |
| 17 April 2024 | Reuters Tankan Index April | Japan |
| 17 April 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp | Japan |
| 17 April 2024 | CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation March | GB |
| 17 April 2024 | CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation March | EA |
| 17 April 2024 | Fed Beige Book | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Fed Mester Speech | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Unemployment Rate March | AU |
| 18 April 2024 | RBA Bulletin | AU |
| 18 April 2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index April | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Fed Williams Speech | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Existing Home Sales March | US |
| 18 April 2024 | Fed Bostic Speech | US |
| 19 April 2024 | Inflation & Core Inflation March | Japan |
| 19 April 2024 | Retail Sales March | GB |
| 19 April 2024 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | US |
Oil Prices
Oil prices closed higher on Friday but could not settle as weekly gainers despite the reports of a possible attack on Israel by Iran over the weekend. The concerns about the supply disruption of crude oil from the Middle East lifted the crude prices. However, the upside remained capped as the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil demand for the full year.
Oil prices traded lower in the initial days of the week on the concern of higher inflation, reducing the hope of early interest rate cuts in the US. In the week, the WTI crude oil prices fell 1.44% while Brent crude was down 1.05%. Traders should remain cautious next week, as a spike in oil prices due to Israel-Iran tension could impact heavily on the stock markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net sellers in the week ended April 12th, they offloaded shares worth Rs 6526.71. crore in the Indian equity cash segment. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers, they bought shares worth Rs 12232.61 crore during the holiday-shortened week.
FIIs sold in three trading sessions out of four, while DIIs bought in four trading sessions last week. Traders should keep a close eye, on the FIIs and DIIs activity in the upcoming week.
Conclusion:
In summary, the stock market prediction for the upcoming week indicates further correction in domestic markets, mainly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increasing oil prices. However, the robust domestic economic indicators and buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) may provide support, to the markets at lower levels. We advise traders to exercise caution next week, trade with strict stop-loss, and refrain from carrying forward positions without hedging.
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