Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 July 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 July 2022): Indian equity market indices registered minor gains for the week ended 1st July. The upside of the markets was capped due to weak global cues, continuous FIIs outflow, higher fiscal deficit of FY23, and slow pace of manufacturing activity. Whereas, the downside was limited as Eight Core Industries data showed 13 month high in May and robust GST revenue collections. Read last week’s analysis here
The domestic equity market trend is negative in the near term due to lots of uncertainties. In the coming week Indian markets will remain volatile, below are the key factors that are likely to impact the Stock Market prediction for the week 4 – 8 July 2022.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 4 -8 July 2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty trend and prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16200 to 15400 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Mild Negative with cautious bias.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 34400 to 32700. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Positive with a cautious bias.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website here or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
On Friday evening RBI showed the data that India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.7 billion to $593.323 billion as of 24 June. For the last three weeks, India’s forex reserves had slipped by $10.785 billion cumulatively. Below are some domestic macroeconomic data that will be released next week.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 04-July- 2022 | Balance of Trade |
| 04-July- 2022 | Export /Import |
| 05-July- 2022 | S&P Global Services PMI |
| 08-July- 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Q1 FY23 Earnings
The FY23 first quarter quarterly earnings season will start next week. The first quarter of FY23 earnings will be crucial as the impact of high commodity and oil prices will be more visible in the margins this time. TCS will be the first Nifty50 company to announce its Q1FY23 earnings on the 8th of July Friday. Investors having positions in the IT space should remain cautious next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Global stock markets mostly closed lower for the week ended 1st July. Next week too there is no hope of getting any positive news from the global front. The Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has accepted that the risk of an economic recession is high because of interest rate hikes by the major central banks to control inflation. Investors are in fear that even after the weak economic data, Fed will continue to hike interest rates aggressively in July to curb inflation.
Next week, the US markets will remain close on Monday on account of Independence Day. Investors will focus on FOMC minutes and US Unemployment rates next week. The other important macroeconomic data for the next week are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 5-July -2022 | Jibun Bank Service & Comp PMI June | Japan |
| 5-July -2022 | Caixin Services and Comp PMI June | China |
| 5-July -2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Service &Comp PMI June | GB |
| 5-July -2022 | Financial Stability Report | GB |
| 6-July -2022 | S&P Global Service &Comp PMI June | US |
| 6-July -2022 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 7-July -2022 | ADP employment change | US |
| 7-July -2022 | Balance of Trade EXP/Imp | US |
| 7-July -2022 | Initial Jobless claim | US |
| 8-July 2022 | Unemployment Rate | US |
Crude Oil Price
The downside in crude oil price is limited now, rather bullish sentiments are once again building in oil markets. This is because of supply disruption that mounts and global oil demand growth are increasing. Now another form of supply disruption is in the news, that is operations at France’s Fos Refinery were halted by strikes and Norway’s offshore production was heavily impacted by them as well.
The Brent crude oil price closed over $111 per barrel on Friday, on a weekly basis it fell more than a percent. International crude oil will remain in demand and we can see further surges in oil prices soon.
Weakness in Indian Rupee
Indian Rupee continues to slip for the sixth straight session, ending at a fresh all-time low of 79.11 against the US dollar on the first day of July. The local currency has been depreciating amid high global crude oil prices, led by geopolitical tension, surging inflationary pressures, global central banks’ aggressive monetary policy tightening, and FIIs outflow. Analysts feel that the Indian rupee will further depreciate to Rs 80-81 against a US dollar and this would impact negatively in the Indian equity markets.
Covid-19 & Restrictions
India reported 17092 fresh daily Covid-19 cases and 29 death in the last 24 hours ending 8 am on Saturday, as per the Union health ministry. The total number of active cases in the country now stands over 1 lakh. The covid cases seen dropped in Mumbai while in Delhi it is increasing. The fourth wave of covid-19 infections is mild and minimum hospitalization.
China is lifting covid-19 restrictions gradually, last week the country lifted restrictions for travelers which supported the global markets. Any further positive updates from China on this front can lift the market mood.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling spree continued in the Indian equity markets. During the week FIIs sold Rs 6836.71 crore while DIIs bought Rs 5926.47 crore in the equity markets cash segment. FIIs selling pressure continued for the last 9 months in a row and this is the longest selling streak by the FIIs in the Indian markets.
Though DIIs have supported the Indian equity markets and tried to match their buying with FII’s selling, the indices are down around 15% from an all-time high hit in October last year. FIIs have made the second highest withdrawal of around Rs 50000 crore in the month of June. Selling pressure from FIIs may continue in the near term.
Monsoon Updates
On Saturday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon covered the entire country, as seasonal rains started in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The monsoon covered the entire country on Saturday, six days ahead of the normal date of July 8, according to the weather office. After the monsoon started over Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of the normal date of June 1, the progress has been delayed and the country reported a deficit in rainfall.
The progress of the southwest monsoon is crucial to the farm-based economy and to control inflation. The weather experts expected the monsoon to pick up the pace in July and predicted well-distributed rainfall this year. The arrival of the monsoon in the entire country on Saturday is good news for the market next week.
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