Indian stock market outlook for next week (11 to 14 Oct )
Market Outlook ( 11 to 14 Oct): Indian stock markets finished more than 2 percent higher during the week ended 8 October, after the previous week’s selloff. Last week the market sentiments were positive due to positive economic data, upgrade ratings by Moody’s, and dovish RBI policy. However, the market upside remains capped due to FIIs outflow and mixed global cues. In the coming week, markets will be closed on Friday 15 October due to Dussehra.
Factors that may impact the Indian stock market next week
Domestic macroeconomic data
Indian markets will have four trading days in the coming week, Friday will be a holiday. The important macroeconomic data that are going to announce during the truncated week are Inflation and IIP numbers. India’s retail CPI-based inflation rate was eased for a third straight month to 5.3 percent YoY in August.
In the last week, RBI has trimmed the retail inflation forecast of FY22 from 5.7 percent to 5.3 percent in its bi-monthly monetary policy. India markets will have a close eye on the next week’s inflation data. The other domestic macro data that are going to announce next week are
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12-October21 | CPI Inflation Sep |
| 12-October21 | Industrial Production Aug |
| 14-October 21 | WPI Inflation |
| 15-October 21 | Foreign Exchange reserve |
| 15-October 21 | Export & Import |
Q2FY22 Earnings
The second-quarter earnings of FY22 have just started. Last week on Friday, TCS has announced its second-quarter earnings in the post-market hours. The IT major has reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 9624 crore for the Q2FY22, registering a 14.1 percent YoY growth.
The numbers announced by the company are below market expectations, on Monday market will react to TCS quarterly earnings. Next week, there are three Nifty50 IT companies that are going to announce their Q2FY22 earnings. IT sectors will remain focus in the coming week.
| Q2 FY22 Results dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 13 October 2021 | Infosys |
| 13 October 2021 | Wipro |
| 14 October 2021 | HCL Tech |
Global market cues
Global markets mostly closed higher during the week ended 8 October. The global markets were volatile last week due to worries about the US debt ceiling, rising bond yields, inflation, surges in oil and natural gas prices. The temporary deal on the US debt ceiling was reached later during the week but the market got mixed reactions after the announcement of weak monthly US employment data released on Friday.
The next week’s global markets will focus on inflations and industrial production data. The schedule for next week’s global macroeconomic data is given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 12 October 21 | Unemployment rate | GB |
| 13 October 21 | Export & Import data SEP | China |
| 13 October 21 | Industrial Production | GB |
| 13 October 21 | GDP- AUG | GB |
| 13 October 21 | Balance of Trade | GB |
| 13 October 21 | Inflation rate- SEP | US |
| 13 October 21 | FOMC minutes | US |
| 14 October 21 | Inflation rate- SEP | China |
| 14 October 21 | Industrial Production | Japan |
| 14 October 21 | Initial Jobless claim | US |
| 15 October 21 | Export & Import data SEP | US |
| 15 October 21 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | US |
Technical Outlook
Technical view on Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures for next week
Nifty futures current position is on Buy, traders can continue the Buy position and reverse to the short position if Nifty futures close below 17774.
Bank Nifty futures current position is Buy on a weekly basis, traders can continue the Buy position and reverse to the short position if Bank Nifty futures close below 37470.
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FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers in the cash market segments last week. FIIs sold only Rs 3422.87 crores while DIIs bought Rs 2231.89 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 8 October.
FIIs are again selling in the Indian markets in October after they bought a small quantity in September. The support from DIIs and retail investors kept the domestic market sentiments optimistic so far in October. The retails sector has become strong enough to support the domestic market in the last year. In the coming days, we may not see any major corrections in Indian markets even after a moderate selling by the FIIs.
Coronavirus risk & Vaccination
India continued to report less than 30K daily new Covid-19 infections in the last 15 days in a row. The active cases also declined to 2.36 L and comprise 0.70 percent of total cases. Globally, the daily Covid-19 infection cases are also declining due to the acceleration of vaccine doses. India so far administered more than 94 crore coronavirus vaccine doses.
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Also read, 5 Best Stock Market Books- Beginners Must Read in 2021
Nifty and Bank Nifty futures prediction for Monday, 11 Oct
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Editor’s Desk
Disclaimer-
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