Stock Market Prediction Next Week (8- 12 Jan 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (8- 12 Jan 2024): Indian stock market indexes closed slightly lower in the first week of 2024. The market sentiments were slightly weak due to profit-taking at higher levels, weak manufacturing PMI data, negative global cues, and a surge in crude oil prices due to Red Sea tension. However, the downside was limited due to FII inflow and robust services activity data.
In the upcoming week, global and domestic macroeconomic data, and quarterly earnings will be in focus and will impact the market. The crude oil prices, movement in the rupee against the dollar, and FII & DII’s investment will also be monitored closely.
Next week, the direction of the Indian stock market is likely to be influenced by the domestic inflation reading, as well as the CPI and PPI inflation data from the US, Japan, and China. The key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (8-12 Jan 2024)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
On Friday, Nifty maintained the 21700 level during the closing session with some volatility witnessed during the intraday session. A decent recovery in the last hours maintains the positive bias intact in Nifty.
Next week, the quarterly result is going to kick off, we expect volatility in the market, and the Nifty index is required to decisively breach the resistance zone of 21800 level to confirm a breakout and anticipate further up moves in the coming days. In the coming week, Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 21300- 22100
On Friday, the Bank Nifty ended on a flat note after high fluctuation was witnessed in the second half. Bank Nifty needs a decisive breach above the 48600 zone to confirm a breakout and expect for further up move.
As of now, the Bank Nifty index has the near-term support of 47500 levels which needs to be sustained for the overall bias to remain intact. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 47000–49500 levels in the coming week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
On Friday post-market, the National Statistical Office (NSO) released the first advanced estimates of India’s GDP growth for the fiscal year 2023-24. According to NSO, the country’s economy will grow at 7.3% in FY2023-24. The estimation is much higher than the IMF’s October forecast of 6.3% and higher than RBI’s and many other research firm’s estimations. Indian markets will react positively to the news on Monday.
The CPI inflation is likely to remain steady near 5.5% in December according to market experts. The November’s IIP numbers will be released on January 12 and economists are expecting industrial output growth to have eased to around 7%-8% from October’s surge. Traders need to remain cautious ahead of both the economic data on Friday.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 January 2024 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth |
| 12 January 2024 | Inflation Rate Dec |
| 12 January 2024 | Industrial Production Nov |
| 12 January 2024 | Manufacturing Production Nov |
| 12 January 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Quarterly Earnings
The quarterly earnings of Q3 FY2023-24 will kick off next week with TCS and Infosys results. The IT sectors will remain in focus next week. The volatility is likely to increase in the IT space, as four tech giant, TCS, Infy, HCL Tech, and Wipro will announce their quarterly earnings in the second half of next week. The schedule is given below.
| Q3FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 11 January 2024 | INFY |
| 11 January 2024 | TCS |
| 12 January 2024 | HCL Tech |
| 12 January 2024 | HDFC Life |
| 12 January 2024 | Wipro |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes faced a lackluster performance in the first week of 2024, as major stock market indexes closed lower during the holiday-shortened week. The stock markets were closed on 1st January in observance of a New Year holiday. The market volume was thin at the beginning of the week, as most traders were in a holiday mood, while in the second half, economic data was in focus and volatility increased.
Investor’s optimism of early interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserves slightly faded with mixed economic data. Technology stocks witnessed profit booking after Barclays downgraded Apple stock. European markets declined due to a contraction in manufacturing PMI activity and a surge in eurozone inflation.
The Asian stock market indexes of China, Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea also closed in the red during the week. You can also read last week’s global stock market updates here.
In the coming week, the focus will remain on the CPI and wholesale inflation data from the US, Japan, and China. The progress in the Middle East tension will be closely monitored by the traders, as further surges in crude oil prices could dampen the global markets.
The fourth-quarter earnings season will begin full-fledged with reports from Bank of America (BAC), Blackrock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Delta Airlines (DAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), United Health (UNH), Wells Fargo (WFC), among others next week on 12th January.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 8 January 2024 | Economic Sentiments Dec | EA |
| 8 January 2024 | Retail Sales Nov | EA |
| 8 January 2024 | Consumer Confidence Dec | EA |
| 8 January 2024 | Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec | EA |
| 8 January 2024 | Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec | US |
| 9 January 2024 | Houshold Spending Dec | Japan |
| 9 January 2024 | Tokyo CPI Inflation & Core CPI Dec | Japan |
| 9 January 2024 | Unemployment Rate Nov | EA |
| 9 January 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Imp Nov | US |
| 11 January 2024 | Inflation and Core Inflation Rate December | US |
| 11 January 2024 | Weekly Jobless Claims | US |
| 12 January 2024 | Current Account Nov | Japan |
| 12 January 2024 | CPI & PPI Inflation Rate Dec | China |
| 12 January 2024 | GDP Monthly & 3 Months Avg | GB |
| 12 January 2024 | Industrial Prodution Nov | GB |
| 12 January 2024 | Manufacturing Production Nov | GB |
| 12 January 2024 | PPI and Core PPI Dec | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices closed higher during the week due to Middle East tension and strong US job data. In the week that ended 5 Jan, the WTI crude oil gained 3% while Brent crude was up 2.3%. However, the upside was limited due to a heavy increase in US gasoline and distillate stocks, as per the inventory report on Thursday.
Earlier in the week, tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns about potential disruptions in the oil supply, which pushed oil prices higher across the globe. On Friday, crude oil experienced a surge following the release of the US job report, which revealed that more workers were hired in December than initially expected. This underscored the resilience of the US economy and signaled robust demand for crude oil.
Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the upcoming week, as higher crude prices could dampen the stock markets across the globe.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) continued their buying spree, they bought shares worth Rs 3290.23 crore in the Indian equity cash segment this week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) turned into net sellers, they sold more than double the amount of shares the FIIs bought last week. DIIs offloaded shares worth Rs 7296.5 crore during the week.
Last week, the US Treasury yield rebounded and closed above 4%. A further spike in US Treasury yields could prompt FIIs to become net sellers in the upcoming week. Traders should closely monitor the activities of FIIs and DIIs in the next week
Conclusion
Next week the stock markets will be influenced by the inflation data, which will remain a focal point in both domestic and global stock markets. Overall, the market trends in the upcoming week will be determined by economic data, quarterly earnings, and global cues. Traders are encouraged to follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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