Stock Market Prediction: Key Factors to Watch Next Week (4- 8 March)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 March 2024): Indian stock markets closed higher for the third straight week ending on March 1st. Sensex and Nifty closed at record-high levels, gaining 0.82% and 0.57% respectively. The market erased all weekly losses on Friday and turned positive due to robust GDP data and positive global cues.
Indian markets conducted a special live trading session on Saturday to test the Disaster Recovery site. Sensex and Nifty continued their northward journey on Saturday, gaining 0.08% and 0.18% respectively during the short special live trading session.
The upcoming week will be a truncated one, NSE and BSE will be shut on Friday, 8 March on account of Mahashivratri. The domestic and global macroeconomic data will remain the focus next week specifically the services and composite PMI data.
The global cues, FIIs and DII investment activity, Crude oil prices, and rupee movement against the dollar will be closely monitored and likely to drive the holiday-shortened week. The other key factors that are likely to influence the domestic market trends are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week ( 4-8 March 2024)
Stock Market Prediction: Nifty & Bank Nifty
Nifty witnessed a strong pick-up on Friday’s session to gain strength as the day progressed and breached above the 22200 zone. On Saturday’s short live trading session, Nifty again hit an all-time high of 22419.55 levels to end on a strong note. The index is in a strong uptrend with next targets of 22500 and 22800 levels expected in the coming days, with support seen at 22200.
Similarly, the Bank Nifty finally witnessed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart to recover from the 50EMA zone of 46250 level on Friday to close on a strong note near 47300 levels. On Saturday, Bank Nifty ended edged higher keeping intact the positive sentiments and expecting further up move. The index would have the next targets of 48400 and 49700 levels in the upcoming sessions, with near-term support maintained near the 46200 zone.
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Domestic Economic Data
After the strong GDP data and higher manufacturing activity data, the domestic markets will have services and composite PMI numbers scheduled for next week, on Tuesday. According to the HSBC flash services and composite PMI released on 22 February, both readings are likely to come higher, compared to the previous month. Other than PMI numbers, markets will have bank loans, deposit growth numbers, and foreign exchange reserves on Friday.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The Week That Was
The global stock market indexes closed mixed for the week ended on March 1. The world stock markets in the US, Europe, and major Asian markets remained focused on inflation and manufacturing activity data. In the US the market sentiments improved at the end of the week. The in-line PCE inflation report and downside ISM report pushed the Treasury yields to close lower on Friday and surged the tech stocks.
European stock markets closed mixed last week amid cautious sentiment ahead of inflation data from Europe and the US and assessed the impact of the inflation figures after the release. In Asia, Chinese stocks rose hoping for Beijing’s stimulus and improved private manufacturing data. Japanese stocks also climbed on expectations of prolonged accommodative monetary policy and a weaker yen benefiting exporters.
You can also read Global Stock Market Update: Mixed Performance Amid Inflation Focus Week
Markets Week Ahead
The macroeconomic data will remain the focus in the global markets in the upcoming week. Traders will closely monitor several job data in the US, starting with ADP Employment Change on Wednesday followed by JOTS’s job opening and monthly non-farm payroll and unemployment data on Friday.
The US Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday will be crucial ahead of the March meeting, as this may show the progress on their fight against inflation and some clarity about the timings of rate cuts.
In Europe, the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday and Q4 GDP data on Friday will be in focus. Investors are hoping for early interest rate cuts especially after the flash inflation data showed inflation in Europe declined in February. The ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be closely monitored next week for more clues about the timings of interest rate cuts.
In Asia, investors will closely monitor China’s trade data and the National People’s Congress meetings, which could influence the local markets in the region. Additionally, attention will be on Japan’s Tokyo inflation data and Australia’s GDP growth data in the coming week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 5th March 2024 | Judo Bank Services PMI Feb | AU |
| 5th March 2024 | Tokyo Bank CPI & Core CPI Feb | Japan |
| 5th March 2024 | Jibun Bank Services PMI Feb | Japan |
| 5th March 2024 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor Feb | GB |
| 5th March 2024 | Ciaxin Services PMI Feb | China |
| 5th March 2024 | HCOB Services PMI Feb | EA |
| 5th March 2024 | S&P Global Services PMI Feb | GB |
| 5th March 2024 | PPI Jan | EA |
| 5th March 2024 | S&P Globa/ ISM Services PMI Data Feb | US |
| 5th March 2024 | Factory Orders Jan | US |
| 5th March 2024 | National People’s Congress Meetings | China |
| 6th March 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Q4 | AU |
| 6th March 2024 | Retail Sales Jan | AU |
| 6th March 2024 | Retail Sales Jan | EA |
| 6th March 2024 | ADP Employment Change Feb | US |
| 6th March 2024 | Fed’s Chair Powell’s Testimony | US |
| 6th March 2024 | JOLTS Job opening JAN | US |
| 7th March 2024 | Fed’s Beige Book | US |
| 7th March 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Import Jan | AU |
| 7th March 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Import Jan- Feb | China |
| 7th March 2024 | Halifax House Price Index Feb | GB |
| 7th March 2024 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 7th March 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Import Jan | US |
| 7th March 2024 | Fed’s Chair Powell’s Testimony | US |
| 8th March 2024 | Current Account & Household Spending Jan | Japan |
| 8th March 2024 | Employment Change Q4 | EA |
| 8th March 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Q4 3rd estimate | EA |
| 8th March 2024 | Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Feb | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices bounced back after a sharp fall in the previous week. In the week the WTI Crude and Brent Crude prices rose 4.55% and 2.36% respectively. The oil market sentiments were improved on optimism of early Federal Reserve rate cuts after the PCE price index data was released. The sentiments were further boosted ahead of the OPEC+ members meeting next week.
The market participants are expecting that OPEC+ members are likely to extend their cuts beyond the first quarter and potentially until the end of 2024. According to market experts, we may see some optimism in crude prices ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Traders should closely monitor the crude prices next as higher crude prices could dampen the equity market sentiments.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net buyers in the last week, they bought shares worth Rs 23.51 crore in the Indian equity cash segment. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 8261 crore during the week. FIIs were the net sellers in three, out of five trading sessions last week, while DIIs bought shares in three.
FIIs turned net buyers in the last two consecutive sessions as the US PCE Price index- the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation report and manufacturing activity data pushed the US Treasury yields lower. The US 10-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.185% from 4.251% closed the previous week. Traders should keep a close eye on the activity of FIIs and DIIs in the coming week, as FIIs buying could support a sharp rally in the domestic markets.
Conclusion
To summarise the stock market prediction for next week, the domestic markets closed on a strong note last week, the global market sentiments are also positive. In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, we anticipate that Indian markets are likely to sustain the positive momentum, with a close eye on global indicators driving market direction.
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