Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 – 17 Nov 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 – 17 Nov 2023): Indian stock market indexes closed higher for the second consecutive week. The domestic markets made decent gains following positive global cues and a fall in US Treasury yields and crude oil prices. However, the upside remained capped as FIIs are consistently selling in the equity cash segments and Fed officials’ hawkish comments regarding interest rate trajectory.
The domestic markets pared all early losses and ended near the day’s high on Friday despite negative cues from Asian peers. The optimism was due to Dhanteras and Diwali weekend. The Muhurat Trading is scheduled for 12 November Sunday, from 6 p.m. to 7.15 p.m., including 15 mins pre-opening session. The NSE/BSE will remain closed on Tuesday 14 November on account of Diwali Balipratipada.
In the coming holiday-shortened week, the market will focus on domestic as well as global macroeconomic data. The trends in the global stock market indexes, crude oil prices, and FII activity are also likely to influence the Indian stock market prediction next week. The other key factors that are likely to influence the domestic markets are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 – 17 Nov 2023)
Stock Market Prediction- Nifty & Bank Nifty next week
Nifty after opening lower on Friday, recovered and closed above the 19400 zone. The index ended in the green on the auspicious day of Danteras, once again consolidating near the 19400-19450 zone for quite some time.
A decisive breach above the 19500-19550 zone is necessary to establish conviction and carry on the momentum further upside. Meanwhile, 19200-19250 will be acting as a good support zone from current levels.
Bank Nifty has also witnessed a rangebound session for quite some time. The index is hovering between 43900 and 43500 levels and would need a decisive breach above the important 50EMA level of the 44000 zone to establish some conviction and further uptrend.
The index has an important support zone of 43200 of the significant 200 period MA which needs to sustain and expect for further rise from current levels. Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 43000-45000 levels during the week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
As anticipated earlier, the growth of India’s Industrial Production (IIP) has cooled down to a three-month low of 5.8% in September. The IIP growth was reported at 10.3% in the prior month. The data was released after the market hours on Friday by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
In the coming week, traders will be closely looking out for the country’s Consumer Price Inflation data on Monday post-market hours. Traders are expecting a further decline in CPI inflation in the month of October.
According to a Reuters poll, India’s CPI inflation is likely to fall to a four-month low of 4.8% in October, closer to RBI’s 4% medium-term target. The Wholesale Price Inflation data will be released on Tuesday. As Indian stock markets will remain closed on Tuesday, traders will react to both data on Wednesday. The other key macroeconomic data that can influence the Indian stock market are given below
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 13 November 2023 | Inflation for October |
| 14 November 2023 | WPI Inflation Data October |
| 15 November 2023 | Trade Data- Export & Import October |
| 17 November 2023 | Bank Loan and Deposit Growth |
| 17 November 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indices mostly finished higher during the week. It was an uneventful week, traders primarily focused on the quarterly earnings. However, speeches given by US Fed officials influenced the global markets in the last two days. Very few economic data were released during the week and they had minimum impact on the global markets.
Falling crude oil prices boosted the market sentiments during the week. South Korean markets jumped above 5% last Monday after short selling was banned there, which further boosted the sentiments in the region. Investors shrugged off the weak economic data from China and continued buying, while strong earnings from Japan kept the traders busy last week.
In the coming week, the global markets will first react to Moody’s downgrading its outlook on the US credit rating from “stable” to “negative”. The reasons cited for downgrades include rising interest rates, political polarization, large fiscal deficits, and debt affordability concerns. This may spike Treasury yields and pressurize the stocks on Monday.
The inflation reading from the US and European countries for the month of October will remain in focus. Industrial production data from the US, China, Japan, and Europe, Retail sales data from the UK, US, and China, and GDP data from Europe and Japan will be closely monitored. The other key economic data that can influence the global stock market prediction are mentioned below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 13 November 2023 | PPI Oct | Japan |
| 14 November 2023 | New Loan Growth Oct | China |
| 14 November 2023 | Unemployment Rate | GB |
| 14 November 2023 | Employment Change Q3 | EA |
| 14 November 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q3 | EA |
| 14 November 2023 | ZEW Economic Sentiments Nov | EA |
| 14 November 2023 | CPI Inflation Rate Oct | US |
| 14 November 2023 | Core Inflation Rate Oct | US |
| 15 November 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q3 | Japan |
| 15 November 2023 | Industrial Production Oct | China |
| 15 November 2023 | Retail Sales Oct | China |
| 15 November 2023 | Unemployment Rate Oct | China |
| 15 November 2023 | Industrial Production Sept | Japan |
| 15 November 2023 | CPI and Core Inflation Oct | GB |
| 15 November 2023 | PPI Inflation Oct | GB |
| 15 November 2023 | Retail Price Index Oct | GB |
| 15 November 2023 | Balance Of Trade Sept | EA |
| 15 November 2023 | Industrial Production Sept | EA |
| 15 November 2023 | PPI & Core PPI Oct | US |
| 15 November 2023 | Retail Sales Oct | US |
| 16 November 2023 | Balance Of Trade Exp & Imp Oct | Japan |
| 16 November 2023 | Machinery Orders Sept | Japan |
| 16 November 2023 | Export & Import Data Oct | US |
| 16 November 2023 | Weekly Jobless Claims | US |
| 16 November 2023 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | US |
| 16 November 2023 | Industrial Production Oct | US |
| 17 November 2023 | Retail Sales Data (Oct) | GB |
| 17 November 2023 | Current Account Sept | EA |
| 17 November 2023 | CPI & Core Inflation Rate Oct | EA |
| 17 November 2023 | Housing Starts & Building Permits | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices closed lower for the third consecutive week, despite closing higher for three out of five trading sessions. The sentiments became downbeat after weak trade data from China. The buyers vanished as the focus shifted from Middle East supply disruption to demand prospects.
According to a Bloomberg report, traders are currently focusing on high interest rates in the U.S. as one of the major factors capping oil demand and also on a slowdown in refining activity in China.
On a weekly basis, both the benchmark WTI and Brent fell around 4.1% and 3.8% respectively. Falling crude price is good for the Indian economy and will have a positive impact on the local stock markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity cash segment last week. They offloaded shares worth Rs 3105.27 crore during the week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 4155.23 crore.
FIIs are persistently selling in the Indian equity cash segments, as the US Treasury yield is still at higher levels, and lots of economic uncertainty. We may see a new high in the domestic market only if FIIs are back. Traders should keep a close eye on FII and DII activity in the coming week.
Conclusion
Indian stocks will remain volatile during the holiday-shortened week. The domestic markets will set direction based on economic data both domestically as well as from the global front. Investors can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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You may also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Diwali Muhurat Trading 2023
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