Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12- 16 Feb 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12- 16 Feb 2024): Indian stock markets closed marginally lower for the week ended on 9 February 2024. Domestic market sentiments were dampened by a spike in US Treasury yields, FII outflows, and investor anticipation of a potential delay in rate cuts, as India’s CPI is expected to remain closer to the upper price band of RBI’s 6% until July.
In the upcoming week, the domestic and global macroeconomic data will remain in the focus, as several countries including India, the US, Australia, and the UK will announce the inflation data. The global market cues, crude oil prices, and rupee movement against the US dollar will also dominate the market trend next week.
Investors will also closely monitor the FIIs and DII investment activity and the December-end quarterly earnings. The other key factors that are likely to influence the domestic market trends are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12 – 16 Feb 2024)
Stock Market Prediction: Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
On Friday, Nifty witnessed high volatility in the morning session with support taken near the 21630 level. The Nifty index recovered significantly and ended near the 21800 zone, improving the sentiment in a much better position.
The index has been maintaining the support zone of 21700 levels. The Nifty index would need a decisive breach above the 21800 zone to improve the bias overall. In the upcoming week, Nifty could trade in a range of 21500 and 22200 levels.
The Bank Nifty opened on a weak note near the 44900 level of the significant 200 period MA level on Friday but witnessed a decent recovery as the session progressed and closed near the 45600 level with consolidation happening for quite some time.
In Bank Nifty, the resistance was witnessed near the 50EMA level of the 46150 zone and would need a decisive breach above this level for conviction to be established and further uptrend. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 44700-46800 levels in the upcoming week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Quarterly Earnings
We are in the middle of the third quarterly earnings, where most of the Nifty50 Stocks have announced their quarterly earnings. On Friday, post-market hours Hero Motor announced its third quarterly earnings and it beats analysts’ expectations. The auto company’s PAT rose 51% to 1073 crore and the company announced a Rs 100 interim dividend.
On Saturday, Pharma major Divis Labs reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 358 crore for the quarter ended December 2023, up 17% from Rs 306 crore posted in the same period last year. ONGC Q3 earnings are expected later in the day.
On Monday, markets will first react to the quarterly earnings of the above three Nifty50 stocks. There are a total of four Nifty50 stocks that will announce their quarterly earnings next week and are likely to influence the markets.
| Q3FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 12 February 2024 | Coal India |
| 13 February 2024 | Hindalco |
| 13 February 2024 | Eicher Motors |
| 14 February 2024 | M&M |
Domestic Economic Data
On the economic front, traders will remain cautious on Monday ahead of CPI inflation and Industrial Production data (IIP) data. According to a Reuters poll of 44 economists, the country’s CPI inflation is likely to fall to 5.09% in January from 5.69% in the previous month but would remain above the midpoint of RBI’s set target of 2%- 6%.
The IIP grew at 2.4% in November down from 11.6% in October, according to the ICRA report the country’s IIP could grow 3-5% higher in December. The other economic data that can influence the stock market next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 February 2024 | Industrial Production Dec |
| 12 February 2024 | Manufacturing Production Dec |
| 12 February 2024 | Retail Inflation Jan |
| 14 February 2024 | WPI Inflation Jan |
| 15 February 2024 | Balance of Tarde Export & Import Jan |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Global stock markets mostly ended higher for the week that ended on 9 February 2024. The US stock market indexes closed higher as corporates including Eli Lilly, Palantir, Spotify, Walt Disney, and Arm Holdings reported strong quarterly earnings and guidance outlook.
The strong ISM services activity and jobless claim data also supported the markets, while the upside remained capped as traders feared that the resilient US economy could further delay interest rate cuts by the Fed. European markets mostly closed higher due to some strong corporate earnings, however, the upside remained capped due to uncertainty of early interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the Chinese markets closed higher during the truncated week, as Beijing’s latest stimulus measures offset investor’s concerns about escalating deflation. FII inflow and weakness in the yen cheered the exporters in Japan and boosted the market sentiments.
You can also read – Global Stock Market Weekly- US Leads, Europe Mixed Amidst Rate Cut Uncertainty
Global Markets Next Week
Inflation will be the key focus area for the global markets next week, as the US, Japan, Australia, and the UK will be releasing the inflation data. The global markets will remain cautious on Tuesday, as the US will be releasing the headline inflation data for January.
According to Morningstar, the monthly CPI and Core CPI for January are likely to be unchanged in the US, while inflation can dip slightly on an annual basis. Other than inflation data, markets will focus on US retail sales and quarterly earnings from Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Cisco System, Coinbase, and Equinix
The GDP growth rate and Industrial Production data from Europe and the UK will be influencing the markets next week. The major Asian stock market indexes including Hang Seng, Kospi, and Taiwan will have a holiday-shortened week, while Chinese markets will remain shut for the whole week on account Lunar New Year. Japan will announce the GDP growth rate for Q4, which will influence the Asian markets next week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 13 February 2024 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Feb | AU |
| 13 February 2024 | PPI Jan | Japan |
| 13 February 2024 | NAB Business Confidence Jan | AU |
| 13 February 2024 | Unemployment Rate Jan | GB |
| 13 February 2024 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Feb | EA |
| 13 February 2024 | CPI Inflation rate Jan | US |
| 13 February 2024 | Core Inflation Rate Jan | US |
| 14 February 2024 | Retail CPI Inflation and Core Inflation Jan | GB |
| 14 February 2024 | PPI Jan | GB |
| 14 February 2024 | Retail Price Index Jan | GB |
| 14 February 2024 | Employment Change Q4 | EA |
| 14 February 2024 | Industrial Production Dec | EA |
| 14 February 2024 | GDP Growth Rate 2nd Estimate Q4 | EA |
| 14 February 2024 | PPI & Core PPI Jan | US |
| 15 February 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Prel Q4 | Japan |
| 15 February 2024 | Unemployment Rate Jan | AU |
| 15 February 2024 | Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb | AU |
| 15 February 2024 | Industrial Production Dec | Japan |
| 15 February 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Prel Q4 | GB |
| 15 February 2024 | Goods Trade Balance Dec | GB |
| 15 February 2024 | Industrial Production Dec | GB |
| 15 February 2024 | Manufacturing Production Dec | GB |
| 15 February 2024 | Balance of Trade Jan | EA |
| 15 February 2024 | Retail Sales | US |
| 15 February 2024 | Export & Import Prices Jan | US |
| 15 February 2024 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 15 February 2024 | Industrial Production Jan | US |
| 16 February 2024 | Retail Sales Jan | GB |
| 16 February 2024 | Building Permits Jan | US |
| 16 February 2024 | Housing Starts Jan | US |
| 16 February 2024 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | US |
| 16 February 2024 | Michigan Inflation Expectation | US |
| 16 February 2024 | Michi Consumer Expectation | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices closed higher in all five trading sessions of the week and ended with substantial gains. The crude oil prices are on the rise due to mounting concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a Hamas ceasefire proposal on Wednesday.
In the week, both the benchmarks WTI and Brent crude gained 6.23% and 6.28% respectively. This week’s gains were followed by a 7% fall in the previous week. On Friday, Israeli force continued their deadly air strikes on Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, U.S. domestic production rebounded to a record level of 13.3 million barrels per day, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The widespread shutdown in oil-producing regions in the US in the last month was due to severe cold weather. Crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile and will trade in a range. Traders should closely monitor the crude prices next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net sellers in the last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 5871.45 crore in the Indian equity cash segment. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and purchased shares worth Rs 5325.76 crore, almost equal to what FIIs sold during the week.
Traders should keep a close eye on the activity of FIIs and DIIs in the coming week. If FIIs turned buyers in the Indian equity cash markets, then we could see new highs in Nifty and Sensex.
Conclusion
Indian Stock Market Prediction for Next Week: Last week, the Indian stock markets closed marginally lower, while most global market indexes closed in the green. In the upcoming week, the focus will mainly be on inflation and global cues. The Indian markets are likely to bounce back in the upcoming week if domestic inflation declines below expected levels and global cues remain positive.
Traders can follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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