Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26 Feb- 1 March 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26 Feb- 1 March 2024): Indian stock markets closed higher for the second straight week ending on February 23rd. Sensex and Nifty gained 0.99% and 0.78% respectively during the week. The market sentiments were upbeat due to positive global cues, a decline in crude oil prices, and an expansion in manufacturing activity in February as per flash PMI data. However, the upside remained capped due to persistent selling pressure from FIIs and profit-taking at a higher level.
In the upcoming week, the domestic and global macroeconomic data will remain in the focus. Specifically, the spotlight will be on the release of Manufacturing PMI data across major economies scheduled for March 1st. Additionally, investors will be keeping a keen eye on key figures such as India’s GDP, as well as the GDP growth and PCE price index data in the United States, all scheduled for release in the upcoming week.
The FIIs and DII investment activity, Crude oil prices, and rupee movement against the dollar will be closely monitored during the week. The other key factors that are likely to influence the domestic market trends are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week ( 26th Feb- 1st March 2024)
Stock Market Prediction for Expiry Week: Nifty & Bank Nifty
Indian markets will remain volatile due to the expiry of February month’s F&O contracts. During the week Nifty index gained strength by hitting an all-time high level. Nifty breached the previous peak level and moved above the 22000 zone decisively has overall strengthened the bias to anticipate further rise, with a target of 22400 and 22800 levels in the coming days.
The Nifty index has near-term support maintained at 22000 zone. The support for the week is seen at 21800 levels and the resistance would be 22600 levels.
Bank Nifty was quite underperforming as compared to the Nifty index and would need a decisive breach above the 47400 zone to establish a conviction for a further upward move for the next target of 48650 and 49750 levels in the coming days. The Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 45500 and 48200 levels during the week.
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Domestic Economic Data
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that the country’s foreign exchange reserve declined $5,24 bn to a two-month low at $616.10 bn, the data came after the closing bell.
In the upcoming week, domestic markets will focus on Q3 GDP growth and 2nd estimate of economic growth for FY2023-24. According to economists and market experts, the country’s GDP growth could slow down in the third quarter. This could be due to external sector problems, subdued agriculture and manufacturing activity. Analysts of the Bank of Baroda projected December 2023 end GDP growth at 6.4% and 6.8% for the full year.
Indian economy grew at a faster rate of 7.6% in the second quarter of the fiscal. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pegged GDP growth at 7% in the current fiscal with third-quarter growth at 6.5% and fourth quarter at 6%. Indian markets will react positively if the GDP growth rate comes above expectations.
The HSBC India flash manufacturing PMI data came slightly higher in February as compared to January. The markets will have the final PMI data next Friday. If the data comes in line with the flash data or above expectations, markets will react positively. The GST collection data is also expected next week. The schedule for Indian macroeconomic data is given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 29 February 2024 | Government Budget Value Jan |
| 29 February 2024 | Infrastructure Output Jan |
| 29 February 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Q4, & FY2023-24 |
| 1 March 2024 | HSBC Manufacturing PMI Feb |
| 1 March 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Auto Sales
Auto stocks will remain in focus in the coming week as auto companies will start announcing their February sales numbers from 1st March onwards. The Nifty auto index gained about 10% in February, traders having a position in auto stocks should remain cautious as we may see some correction in the coming week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes closed higher for the week ending on February 23. The US, Europe, and major Asian markets closed the week on a positive note due to the optimism of solid quarterly earnings. The global market sentiments were upbeat due to strong earnings and guidance from Nvidia that stoked a global rally and demand for IT stocks.
The solid corporate earnings, ease in crude prices, strong economic data, and China’s bigger-than-expected cut in loan prime rate for 5 years to boost the country’s ailing economy uplifted the global market sentiment last week.
You can also read Global Stock Market Highlights: Weekly Analysis (Feb 19-23)
In the upcoming week, the macroeconomic data will remain focused along with quarterly earnings. Traders will have a close eye on the US GDP growth rate on Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation Core Price Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data on Thursday followed by ISM manufacturing activity data on Friday in the next week.
Other than economic data focus will remain on quarterly earnings including Domino’s, Unity Software, Zoom, Baidu, Salesforce, Best Buy, and others.
In Europe, economic sentiments, manufacturing activity, and inflation data will drive markets in the region. In Asia, inflation, retail sales, and unemployment data from Japan, manufacturing activity data from Japan and China likely to influence the global markets next week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 26 February 2024 | New Home Sales Jan | US |
| 26 February 2024 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Feb | US |
| 27 February 2024 | Inflation & Core Inflation Jan | Japan |
| 27 February 2024 | Durable Goods Order Jan | US |
| 27 February 2024 | House Price Index Dec | US |
| 27 February 2024 | CB Consumer Confidence Feb | US |
| 27 February 2024 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Feb | US |
| 28 February 2024 | Monthly CPI Indicator Jan | AU |
| 28 February 2024 | Economic Sentiments Feb | EA |
| 28 February 2024 | Consumer Sentiments Feb | EA |
| 28 February 2024 | Industrial Sentiments Feb | EA |
| 28 February 2024 | GDP Growth Rate Q4 2nd Estimate | US |
| 28 February 2024 | PCE Price Index Q4 2nd Estimate | US |
| 29 February 2024 | Industrial Production Jan | Japan |
| 29 February 2024 | Retail Sales Jan | Japan |
| 29 February 2024 | House Credit Jan | AU |
| 29 February 2024 | Retail Sales Jan | AU |
| 29 February 2024 | Housing Starts Jan | Japan |
| 29 February 2024 | BoE Consumer Credit | GB |
| 29 February 2024 | PCE price Index, Core PCE Jan | US |
| 29 February 2024 | Jobless Claim | US |
| 1 March 2024 | Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Feb | AU |
| 1 March 2024 | Unemployment Rate Jan | Japan |
| 1 March 2024 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Feb | Japan |
| 1 March 2024 | NBS Manufacturing PMI Feb | China |
| 1 March 2024 | Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI Feb | China |
| 1 March 2024 | Consumer Confidence Feb | Japan |
| 1 March 2024 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Feb | GB |
| 1 March 2024 | Inflation & Core Inflation Jan | EA |
| 1 March 2024 | Unemployment Rate Jan | EA |
| 1 March 2024 | S&P & ISM Global Manufacturing PMI Feb | US |
| 1 March 2024 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Feb | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices closed lower on Friday, snapping a two-week winning streak amid fresh concerns for higher US interest rates for the longer period. In addition to this, weak economic data released in Japan and the UK in the previous week showed both countries entering recession in the fourth quarter also hit the crude oil demand.
In the week, US-based WTI crude was down 3.40% while the London-based Brent Crude fell 2.2%. The downside was capped in crude prices due to a fresh escalation in Middle East tension, which raised concerns about supply disruption. Experts feel that crude prices will remain range-bound in the upcoming week, but traders should keep a close eye on crude prices.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net sellers in the last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 1939.4 crore in the Indian equity cash segment. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 3532.82 crore more than FIIs sold during the week. FIIs were the net sellers in three out of five trading sessions last week, while DIIs bought shares in four.
The FII/FPIs were the net sellers in equity cash segments due to the concern of high valuation in Indian equity markets and rising US Treasury yields. Though, last week the US Treasury yields slightly eased, the 10-year Treasury yield is still above 4%. Traders should keep a close eye on the activity of FIIs and DIIs in the coming week, as FIIs buying could further boost the domestic market sentiments.
Conclusion
To summarise the stock market prediction for next week, the Indian stock markets closed on a strong note last week, and global market sentiments are also positive. In the upcoming week, domestic markets will remain volatile, with the focus primarily on February month F&O expiry and global cues. Anticipating a positive trajectory for the Indian markets with high volatility.
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