Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9- 13 Oct 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9- 13 Oct 2023): Indian stock markets ended the week on a positive note, snapping a two-week losing streak. The ease in crude oil prices and upbeat economic data supported the domestic markets while the upside remained capped due to weak global cues and persistent selling pressure from foreign investors.
In the coming week, the corporate results for the second quarter, inflation, IIP data, and global cues will remain in focus. On the global front, inflation readings from the US and China, FOMC minutes, Michigan consumer sentiments, IMF/World Bank annual meeting, and economic outlook will also influence the markets.
The other factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction net week are given below:
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9 -13 Oct 2023)
Nifty and Bank Nifty Next Week
On Friday, the Nifty index extended the gains post the RBI policy outcome and closed just above the 19650 zone. Nifty gained a second consecutive day and gradually improved the bias with participation beginning to be visible from the broader markets as well.
The Nifty index would further need to close above the next hurdle of 19850 levels to establish some conviction for a further upmove in the coming days. On a weekly basis, the Nifty index could trade in a range of 19200 to 20000 levels.
Similarly, the Bank Nifty index during the intraday session on Friday tried to recover after the RBI policy outcome but failed to sustain above the 44500 zone. Bank Nifty index underperformed as compared to the Nifty index and closed near 44350 levels.
The Bank Nifty index needs to breach above the 44800 zone, the important 50EMA level to improve the bias and overall improvement in the trend. On a weekly basis, the Bank Nifty index could trade in a range of 43500 -45500 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website / WhatsApp Channel-here/ Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Q2 Earnings
The corporate earnings for the second quarter (July-Sept) of the current financial year will remain in focus, as the big IT companies will announce their quarterly results next week. TCS will kickstart the earning season on 11 October followed by HCL Tech and Infosys this week.
According to experts, IT companies are expected to announce muted revenue growth despite a robust deal in the pipeline. Experts feel that slower-than-expected conversions of the existing deal will cap a sharp revival in the revenue in the near future, while mid-cap IT stocks are expected to beat a large cap in revenue growth. The Nifty 50 companies scheduled to announce their corporate results are given below.
| Q2FY24 Result Dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 11 October 2023 | TCS |
| 12 October 2023 | HCL Tech |
| 12 October 2023 | Infy |
| 13 October 2023 | HDFC Life |
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
In the coming week, traders will be closely watching the inflation data for the month of September. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd (CMIE), India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to have cooled down substantially in the last month. CMIE expects India’s retail inflation to ease to 5.25 percent in September from 6.83 percent reported in August.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of August is also expected next week and is likely to remain robust. The economist anticipated that the IIP growth rate for the month of August to come in at around 10 percent. This is due to robust growth in eight core sectors and the upbeat performance of high-frequency indicators. The other domestic macroeconomic data scheduled for the next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 October 2023 | Industrial Production Aug IIP Data |
| 12 October 2023 | CPI Inflation Data Sept |
| 13 October 2023 | WPI inflation Sept |
| 13 October 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Sept |
| 13 October 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets mostly closed lower during the week that ended on 6th October. The global markets were under selling pressure mainly due to a spike in Treasury yields. The fear of higher interest rates for an extended period dented the growth and big tech stocks in the US and dragged the indices.
The monthly job reports showed the US economy added almost double the expectation of jobs, however, wage growth was less than expected in September. This has boosted the US market sentiments after the initial dip on Friday. China’s stock markets were closed for the whole week due to a weeklong holiday. Europe closed lower due to weak economic data and as bond yields spiked.
In the coming week, on the global front, the quarterly earnings from big banks and financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, and PNC Financial Services will be in focus. The US and China’s CPI inflation and PPI inflation data, and FOMC minutes will set the market direction.
China will resume its trading on Monday after a weeklong holiday, traders will first react to the positive PMI data released in the previous week. China’s “Golden Week Holiday” boosted consumption, and demands were also picked up, which will be positive for the Chinese economic recovery and the global markets.
The other global macroeconomic data likely to impact the global stock markets are given below
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 9 October 2023 | Fed Officials Speech | US |
| 9 October 2023 | IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting | |
| 10 October 2023 | BRC Retail Sales Sept | GB |
| 10 October 2023 | Current Account Aug | Japan |
| 10 October 2023 | IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook | |
| 10 October 2023 | Fed Officials Speech | US |
| 11 October 2023 | Reuters Tankan Index Oct | Japan |
| 11 October 2023 | PPI and Core PPI Sept | US |
| 11 October 2023 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 11 October 2023 | IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting | |
| 11 October 2023 | Loan Growth/ Money Supply Sept | China |
| 12 October 2023 | PPI Sept | Japan |
| 12 October 2023 | GDP Aug & 3 Month Avg | GB |
| 12 October 2023 | Industrial Production Aug | GB |
| 12 October 2023 | Balance of Trade Aug | GB |
| 12 October 2023 | CPI Inflation Sept | US |
| 12 October 2023 | Core Inflation Sept | US |
| 12 October 2023 | Weekly Jobless Claims | US |
| 12 October 2023 | IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting | |
| 13 October 2023 | Inflation Rate Sept | China |
| 13 October 2023 | PPI rate Sept | China |
| 13 October 2023 | Balance of Trade- Exp & Imp | China |
| 13 October 2023 | Industrial Production Aug | EA |
| 13 October 2023 | Export and Import Prices Sept | US |
| 13 October 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Oct | US |
| 13 October 2023 | Michigan Consumer Expectation Oct | US |
| 13 October 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation Oct Prel | US |
| 13 October 2023 | IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting | |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday but ended the worst week since March. On a weekly basis, the US-based WTI crude fell about 11% while the London-based Brent crude oil dropped 8%. The higher interest rates, borrowing costs, and slow global growth dented fuel demand during the week, despite the extended output cut by Saudi Arabia and Russia till the year-end.
A strong US dollar is negative for the oil demand, as it increases the commodity prices. Experts feel the crude oil prices could slip further and this could benefit the domestic markets. Traders should follow the movement of crude oil prices in the coming week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity cash markets last week. They were net sellers in all four trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 8412.65 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 4435.17 crore, which is almost 50%l of what FIIs have sold during the week.
The domestic market sentiments were hit, as FIIs are persistently selling the equity cash segment. FIIs will likely continue selling in the Indian markets, as 10-year Treasury yields hit a 16-year high at 4.80%. Traders should keep a close eye on FII and DII activity in the coming week. FII’s intense selling in the Indian equity cash markets will further hit the market sentiments.
Conclusion
Last Friday, Indian stock markets closed on an optimistic note. The mood in the domestic market sentiments turned slightly positive, as it witnessed a second consecutive day of rallying. Furthermore, the global markets also turned positive on Friday following the release of the US monthly job report.
Going ahead, markets will focus on the quarterly earnings and economic data next week. It is advisable for investors to remain cautious since US Treasury yields are currently at multiyear highs, any further spike could dent the market sentiments. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday, 9 Oct 2023
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