Stock Market Prediction: Insights and Outlook for Next Week (1st – 5th April 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (1st – 5th April 2024): Indian stock markets ended the truncated week with strong gains, rising for the second straight week. The equity benchmarks ended higher in two out of three trading sessions during the week. Sensex gained 819.41 points or 1.13%, while Nifty added 230.15 points or 1.04% during the week ended on Thursday. The market sentiments were upbeat due to institutional buying, as both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers during the week and positive global cues.
In the upcoming week, markets will focus on the RBI monetary policy meeting and global and domestic macroeconomic data. The manufacturing and services PMI data from several countries, the US nonfarm payroll and unemployment data, the flash inflation data, and retail sales from Europe will be in focus during the week.
The global market sentiments will play a crucial role in setting the local market directions. The macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, FIIs, and DII activity will also dictate the trend on the bourses in the upcoming week. The other key factors that will likely influence the domestic stock markets including stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week (1st – 5th April 2024)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
The Nifty index witnessed a strong rally on the last day of the financial year FY2023-24. The index ended on a strong note near the 22350 zone with an intraday high of 22516 levels on the back of heavy buying in frontline stocks.
The Nifty index has once again gained strength and one can expect to retest the previous peak zone of 22526 levels in the coming days, with next higher targets of 22700 and 23200 levels expected. The Nifty index could trade between 21900 and 22800 in the next week, according to Prabhudas Lilladher.
The Bank Nifty index also gained momentum during the intraday session to touch the high of 47440 levels with improvement in the bias and ended the day near 47100 levels.
As mentioned earlier, a decisive breach above the 47300 zone would establish conviction to anticipate for further rise in the coming days. The Bank Nifty index would have a weekly range of 45900-48500 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
The official data released on Thursday after the markets showed that India’s infrastructure output (eight core sectors) growth rose 6.7%, in February at a three-month high, up from 4.1% in January. India’s eight core sectors contribute 40.27% of the country’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and so economists are expecting a 4-6.5% expansion of IIP data in February, this can lift the market sentiments on Monday.
In the upcoming week, the HSBC manufacturing and services PMI will be released. According to the HSBC flash PMI data released on 21st March 2024, India’s composite PMI rose in March, boosted by manufacturing activity. The March PMI data, in line with the flash estimate, can boost the market sentiments in the next week. The GST collection data for March will be in focus on Monday.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 2nd April 2024 | HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
| 4th April 2024 | HSBC Services & Composite PMI |
| 5th April 2024 | RBI Interest Rate Decision |
| 5th April 2024 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth |
| 5th April 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserves |
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from 3rd to 5th April 2024, the first meeting for the new financial year FY2024-25. The meeting outcome is scheduled for Friday, 5th April 2024, and the RBI is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged. Economists expect elevated interest rates till July, due to strong economic growth and a sticky inflation rate.
According to Reuter’s poll, held on March 15-22, all 56 economists, expect the interest rate to keep hold at 6.5% in the April 3 – 5 meeting. However, their opinion is divided about the first interest rate cut, as about 50%, are expecting a 6.25% interest rate by the end of September, while the balance forecasted a 6% interest rate by the end of this year.
The domestic markets will remain cautious next week, ahead of the RBI MPC meeting outcome. Investors will be closely looking, for clues related to upcoming rate cuts, inflation, and growth projections.
Auto Sales Numbers
Auto stocks will be in focus next week as India’s auto companies will start announcing their sales figures from April 1st onwards. According to the market expert, the two-wheeler and passenger vehicles will see sales volume growth in March. Experts feel that commercial vehicle sales remain mixed, while tractor sales will likely remain subdued.
The market expert feels that till mid of March, the two-wheeler segment saw a retail growth of 10-12% YoY for the month. According to market experts Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, and Maruti Suzuki may lead the auto sales growth in March, while commercial vehicle and tractor sales of Tata Motors, Eicher Motors, Ashok Leyland, and M&M may see muted sales.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes mostly ended mixed for the week ending on March 28. The key indexes in the US and Asian markets closed mixed, while Europen stock market indexes ended the truncated week on a high note. The strong economic data lifted the Dow Jones and S&P 500, while a hawkish speech from a Fed official dented the market sentiments and dragged the Nasdaq index.
The possibility of interest rate cuts in June lifted the European markets during the week. In Asia, the decline in the yen against the US dollar, concern about Chinese property markets, and drag in tech stocks weigh on market sentiments during the week.
You can also read – Wall Street to Shanghai: Global Stock Market Weekly Digest (March 25-29)
On Monday, some countries will have extended holidays on account of Easter. The US markets will first react to the PCE price index data on Monday- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Chairman Powell’s speech delivered on Friday. Investors will look closely for JOLTS job opening data, nonfarm payroll, and unemployment data in the upcoming week.
Several countries will announce March’s manufacturing, services, and composite PMI data during the week. Investors will closely watch the inflation and retail sales data from Europe.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 1st April 2024 | Tankhan Manufacturing & Non-Mfg Index Q1 | Japan |
| 1st April 2024 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI March | Japan |
| 1st April 2024 | Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI March | China |
| 1st April 2024 | Nationwide Housing Price March | GB |
| 1st April 2024 | S&P Global / ISM Manufacturing PMI March | US |
| 2nd April 2024 | Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI March | AU |
| 2nd April 2024 | HCOB Manufacturing PMI March | EA |
| 2nd April 2024 | BoE Consumer Credit Feb | GB |
| 2nd April 2024 | Mortgage Approval Feb | GB |
| 2nd April 2024 | S&P Global Manufactring PMI March | GB |
| 2nd April 2024 | JOLTs Job Opening Feb | US |
| 2nd April 2024 | Factory Order Feb | US |
| 3rd April 2024 | Jibun Bank Services PMI March | Japan |
| 3rd April 2024 | Ciaxin Services PMI March | Japan |
| 3rd April 2024 | Inflation Rate Flash March | EA |
| 3rd April 2024 | Unemployment Rate Feb | EA |
| 3rd April 2024 | ADP Employment Change March | US |
| 3rd April 2024 | S&P/ ISM Global Services PMI | US |
| 4th April 2024 | Judo Bank Services PMI March | AU |
| 4th April 2024 | Retail Sales Feb | AU |
| 4th April 2024 | S&P Global Services PMI March | GB |
| 4th April 2024 | PPI March | EA |
| 4th April 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Import | US |
| 4th April 2024 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 5th April 2024 | Balance of Trade Exp & Import Feb | AU |
| 5th April 2024 | Halifax House Price March | GB |
| 5th April 2024 | Retail Sales Feb | EA |
| 5th April 2024 | Non-Farm Payroll March | US |
| 5th April 2024 | Unemployment rate March | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The recent rally in crude oil prices supported both benchmarks to close with strong gains in the first quarter of 2024. The WTI and Brent crude oil gained 3.15% and 1.84% during the week, as Russia’s output cut eased global oversupply. Russia had earlier announced that it would deepen the ongoing production cut after Ukraine attacked its fuel refineries.
Investors will be closely watching, the OPEC+ members meeting next week for any cues related to the supply and ongoing geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia, who lead OPEC+, have already extended their output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of June. Traders should closely monitor the OPEC meeting and crude prices as higher oil prices could dampen the recent market rally.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were turned net buyers in the holiday-shortened week, they bought shares worth Rs 2368.76. crore in the Indian equity cash segment. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 8913.49 crore during the week. FIIs and DIIs were the net buyers in all three trading sessions, over the week.
Traders should keep a close eye on the FIIs and DIIs activity in the upcoming week, as the FII and DII’s buying spree in Indian equity cash segments could support the domestic markets to hit a new high in the upcoming days.
Conclusion:
To summarise the stock market prediction for next week, Indian markets ended last week on a positive note. The sentiments from the global markets will likely remain positive in the coming week. The RBI monetary policy will remain focused and set the market direction thereafter. You can follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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