Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26- 30 June 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26- 30 June 2023): Indian stock markets snapped a four-week winning streak and ended lower during the week. The domestic market sentiments were hit due to weak global cues, delay in monsoon, and as FIIs remain net sellers in most trading sessions. The major global markets fell sharply last week, as investor’s fear regarding interest rate hikes and recessions was renewed
The coming week will be a truncated one as the domestic markets will remain closed on 28 June 2023 on account of Bakri Id. Indian markets will trigger volatility next week, as traders will roll over the F&O positions from the near month to the far month due to the monthly F&O expiry.
The global cues, progress in the monsoon, and macroeconomic data will also remain focused and set the market direction next week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26-30 June 2023)
F&O Expiry: Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
On Friday, the Nifty index finished lower for the second consecutive day and took support near the important level of 18650 during the intraday session, slightly weakening the bias and sentiment. The Nifty index breaching below the 18650 zone would trigger a further slide in the coming days with the 18450 zone as the major important support level.
To improve the bias, again the Nifty index needs an up move and sustain above the 18800 zone to anticipate further breakout above the previous peak zone of 18887 level. On a weekly basis, the Nifty index could trade in a range of 18400-18900 levels.
The Bank Nifty index continues to remain sluggish hovering near the 43500 and 43800 levels with major frontline banking stocks remaining weak throughout the session on Friday.
For the Bank Nifty index, the level of 43000 remains as the strong support while 44400 would be strong resistance, these levels need to be breached decisively for a fresh breakout. Next week, the Bank Nifty index could trade in a range of 42800-44500 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Progress in Monsoon
The progress in the monsoon will be closely watched by the traders next week. On Thursday, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the country’s cumulative rainfall was 31% below normal as of June 22. The slow progress of the monsoon and the deficiency of rains may combine to shrink agricultural production.
Lower agricultural production tends to hike food prices and limit farm sector growth and ultimately ended up with high inflation, which may again impact the GDP growth. According to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) recent updates on 23 June 2023, the Southwest Monsoon has further advanced. The positive news on the progress in the monsoon can support the domestic markets next week.
Macroeconomic Data
According to the RBI data showed on Friday, the country’s forex reserves rose by $2.350 billion in the week ending 16 June 2023. The total reserves kitty stand at $596.098 billion. Except for the gold, all other components witnessed a sharp upside on Week-on- Week basis. In the coming week, the market will positively react to the forex reserve news.
Below are some important macroeconomic data that are going to be released in the coming week and will have an impact on the market, particularly on the last trading day
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 30 June 2023 | Bank Deposit Growth June |
| 30 June 2023 | Bank Loan Growth June |
| 30 June 2023 | Current Account Q1 |
| 30 June 2023 | External Debt Q1 |
| 30 June 2023 | Infrastructure Output May |
| 30 June 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes ended lower and had a negatively impacted on the domestic markets during the week. The interest rate hikes, sticky inflation, and weak economic data triggered recession worries among investors, mainly in Western countries like US and Europe. The lower-than-expected stimulus measures from Beijing and weak economic data from mainly from Japan also hit Asian markets during the week.
The global stock markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week, as the focus will be more on macroeconomic data. In the coming week, global investors will be closely watching the event “ECB Forum on Central Banking” to get clarity on Inflation and interest rate hike path.
Industrial profits from China, GDP growth rate from US and UK, PMI reading from China, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index will set the global market direction next week. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 26 June 2023 | ECB President Lagarde’s Speech | EA |
| 26 June 2023 | ECB Forum on Central Banking | EA |
| 27 June 2023 | Durable Goods Order May | US |
| 27 June 2023 | House Price Index May | US |
| 27 June 2023 | CB Consumer Confidence June | US |
| 27 June 2023 | New Home Sales May | US |
| 27 June 2023 | ECB Forum on Central Banking | EA |
| 28 June 2023 | Industrial Profits May | China |
| 28 June 2023 | Gfk Consumer Confidence | June |
| 28 June 2023 | Fed Chir Powell’s Speech | US |
| 28 June 2023 | ECB Forum on Central Banking | EA |
| 29 June 2023 | Bank Stress Test | US |
| 29 June 2023 | Consumer Confidence June | Japan |
| 29 June 2023 | Fed Chir Powell’s Speech | US |
| 29 June 2023 | Economic Sentiments June | EA |
| 29 June 2023 | Industrial Sentiments June | EA |
| 29 June 2023 | Consumer Confidence June | EA |
| 29 June 2023 | Consumer Inflation Expectation June | EA |
| 29 June 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q1 | US |
| 29 June 2023 | Weekly Jobless Claims | US |
| 29 June 2023 | PCE and Core PCE Price | US |
| 30 June 2023 | Unemployment Rate May | Japan |
| 30 June 2023 | Tokoyo CPI, Core CPI June | Japan |
| 30 June 2023 | Industrial Production May | Japan |
| 30 June 2023 | NBS PMI June | China |
| 30 June 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q1 | GB |
| 30 June 2023 | Current Account Q1 | GB |
| 30 June 2023 | Unemployment Rate May | EA |
| 30 June 2023 | Inflation and Core Inflation Rate June | EA |
| 30 June 2023 | Personal Consumption, Spending May | US |
| 30 June 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments & Inflation Exp | US |
| 30 June 2023 | PCE and Core PCE Prices May | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The oil prices closed about 4 percent lower during the week, as recession fears were triggered by aggressive rate hikes by leading central banks of Western countries. It also dampens the optimism of summer travel in the US. The expectation of more stimulus from Beijing was also scrapped after China’s central bank cut 10 bps instead of 15 bps (expectation) of interest rates for the -5 Yr term to increase the demand and economic recovery post-pandemic.
The US-based WTI crude declined to a 3-week low of $67.36, during the week it closed lower by 3.7% while London-based Brent crude was down at $73.85, versus a three-week low at $72.12, it declined about 4% for the current week. Though crude oil prices are likely to remain steady in the next week, still traders should closely monitor the fluctuation of oil prices.
FII & DIIs flow
Both the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers in the Indian equity markets during the week. FIIs bought Rs 55.49 crore while DII’s net purchase was Rs 1693.08 crore shares for the week.
Though FIIs were net buyers in the Indian equity markets last week they bought only in one trading session, in the remaining four sessions they were net sellers. Traders should follow FIIs and DIIs trading activity closely in the next week to gauge the market direction.
Conclusion:
The Indian stock markets are expected to remain volatile due to the monthly F&O expiry. The global cues will remain the focus, as crucial economic data, ECB Forum may set the market direction in the coming holiday-shortened week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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You may also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 26 June 2023
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