Weekly Market Updates: Nifty midcap and smallcap closed higher and Key factors for next week

 

Weekly Market Updates- Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty, Midcap, and Smallcap index: Indian stock market gained last week despite Friday’s negative close. On a weekly basis, Nifty gained 160.7 points or 1.52% and at 10768.05 while Sensex was up by 572.91 points or 1.59%  and at 36594.33. The Bank Nifty also gained by 546.05 points or 2.49% and closed at 22398.45 levels.

The Nifty midcap 100 gained 210.95 points or 1.41% and at 15253.60. The Nifty smallcap 100 index was the top gainer in the last week. The smallcap 100 was up by 206.2 points or 4.39%  and at 4912.2 levels.

 

Nifty50 top weekly gainers and losers

Weekly Nifty50 Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Bajaj Finance	3314.05	2931.50	13.05
Hindalco	163.70	146.40	11.82
IndusInd Bank	539.25	487.20	10.68
State Bank of India	195.60	184.70	5.90
Bajaj Finserv	6483.80	6149.40	5.44
Weekly Nifty50 Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Bharti Infratel	209.05	226.70	7.79
Adani Ports	334.95	360.40	7.06
ITC	194.35	207.55	6.36
ONGC	78.55	82.40	4.67
NTPC	90.40	94.50	4.34

 

Nifty midcap and smallcap weekly gainers and losers

Weekly Nifty Midcap 100 Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
SAIL	36.90	30.85	19.61
Bombay Burmah	1226.00	1029.90	19.04
Weekly Nifty Midcap 100 Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Future Retail	105.80	136.60	22.55
IDBI Bank	43.70	51.00	14.31

 

Weekly Nifty Smallcap 100 Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Ujjivan Small	39.10	30.30	29.04
Indiabulls Real Est.	69.70	56.40	23.58
Weekly Nifty Smallcap 100 Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Omaxe	79.80	102.95	22.49
Vakrangee	31.55	34.80	9.34

 

News that influenced the market last week

 

Last week the market sentiments were positive as Niti Aayog has launched a Digital India Atma Nirbhar Bharat App for tech entrepreneurs and startups. Cabinet has approved the affordable rental housing complexes (ARHCs) for urban migrants and poor under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.  

The launch of the Rewa Ultra Mega Solar power project and Prime Minister Modi’s speech to the Indian Global week 2020 through video conferencing also motivated the market.  Prime Minister Modi said, “ we are already seeing green-shoots when it comes to economic recovery” while addressing India Global week 2020 last week.

However, the market upside was capped as the India Rating and Research stated that the impact of coronavirus and the associated policy response may result in an additional Rs 1.67 lakh crore of debt. Traders were also worried about increasing cases coronavirus in India and of Bank of America Securities (BofA) report that Inda’s GDP will contract by 3% in FY21.

Key factors that will influence the market next week

Q1 FY21 results

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd has reported its Q1FY21 result on 9th July Thursday after the market. The company posted a 13.81% YoY fall in profit at Rs 7008 crores. The revenue fell 4.1% QoQ to Rs 38322 crores as compared to Rs 39946 in Q4FY20. Company’s margin narrowed to 23.6% from 25.1% a 148 bps on QoQ basis.

TCS Q1FY21 results missed the street estimate. The share price of TCS opened in a flat note after the result and later closed in 0.82% higher in NSE.

As the earning season started, next week the Indian stock market will react to the Q1 FY21 results for the below Nifty50 stocks.

Q1 Results dates for Nifty50 Stocks
14th July	Wipro
15th July	Infosys
17th July	Britannia

 

Macroeconomic data

The Indian government has suspended the release of headline Industrial output data for May. As the lockdown was imposed for more than two months during that period to curve the coronavirus pandemic and inadequate data collection. The earlier government also suspended the release of IIP numbers for April as well as inflation data for April and May.

Industrial output contracted 34.71 in May according to Reuters calculations based on available data. Analyst in a Reuters poll had forecast a 37.8% drop. The news has come after the market hours on Friday the Indian stock market may not react on the news on Monday.

The macro data for next week are:

Macro Data Next Week
13th July	CPI Inflation rate
14th July	WPI Inflation
17th July	Foreign Exchange Reserve
17th July	Bank Loan growth
17th July	Bank deposit growth

Global cues

Last week the Indian stock market gained due to the positive global cues. The US and Asian markets were positive due to positive macro data and hopes of quick economic recovery. Indian markets also rallied while tracking the global peers in the last week

The spike in coronavirus cases in the US and other parts of the world can create fear among the traders. So traders are advised to trade on stock-specific and hedge the high leverage position in the market.

 

Coronavirus

The coronavirus cases are increasing in India, the US, and other parts of the world. India is in the third position in the global tally in the total number of cases. The increase in infection has reimposed strict lockdown in some parts of India. The fear of coronavirus infection can always make the Indian market volatile and bearish.

On the other side, some pharma companies are in the advanced stage of Coronavirus Vaccine. Any positive development in this front will make the market bullish. 

 

FIIs and DIIs data

On a weekly basis, FIIs and DIIs both were sellers in the cash market. FIIs sold Rs 634.85 crores whereas DIIs sold Rs 2601.01 in the cash market last week. Indian markets gained more than 1.5% last week without FIIs and DIIs buying. 

In Indian return on investment has become lower nowadays. Investors do not have too many choices, FD, Bonds are giving super-low returns. Retail investors feel that the Indian stock market can give better returns in the current situation. Yes, retail participants are getting attracted to the stock market in recent days. 

 

Crude Oil prices

The crude oil prices gained last Friday after the Internation Energy Agency raises the demand forecast for crude oil for 2020. The agency also warned that increasing coronavirus cases in the US can temper the expectation of fast recovery for fuel consumption.

The Brent crude oil price gained around 1% on a weekly basis whereas the WTI crude closed marginally lower at 0.25% in the last week. 

 

Nifty and Bank Nifty prediction for next week

 

Nifty Future prediction for next week

Primary Trend of Nifty Futures next week: Positive

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Futures: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 10970whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 10650

If Nifty futures share price Moves Above 10820 and sustain. Then you should Buy with 1st Target of 10845 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 10710 FOR the Target of 10845- 10866- 10915 – 10970

If Nifty futures share price Moves Below 10710 and sustain. Then you should Sell with 1st Target of 10680 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 10820. FOR the Target of 10680-  10650- 10590-10540

 

Bank Nifty prediction in futures for next week

Primary Trend of Nifty Bank share price in future for next week: Positive

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Bank share price in Future: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 22900, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short  Covering (Buy) @ 21800

Nifty Bank share price future Moves Above 22552 and sustain. Then you should Buy with the 1st Target of 22640 during the day with a Stop Loss of  22210. FOR the Target of 22640 – 22720- 22870- 23020

If Nifty Bank share price future Moves Below 22210 and sustained. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 22120 during the day with a Stop Loss of 22552. FOR the Target of 22120 – 22020- 21780-21530

 

Conclusions

Indian stock market is gradually rising despite the fear of increasing coronavirus infection. The traders and investors are in the hopes of quick economic recovery. The earning season has also started. It is not advisable to compare the Q1FY21 data on the YoY or QoQ basis due to coronavirus lockdown. The management commentary should be watched out for by the investors this time.

The Indian market is looking positive but the traders should be cautious and hedge their high leveraged position. Traders can also follow our Daily Stock Market Live for Nifty and Nifty Bank share price target reports

 

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Editor’s Desk

 

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