Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 3- 7 July 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 3- 7 July 2023): Indian stock markets ended the week at a record closing high on Friday. The equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty hit a new record high on Friday. The market sentiments were upbeat due to strong FIIs inflow, progress in the monsoon, and strong economic data from the US. However, the upside reminds capped due to the hawkish statement made by central bank policymakers in ECB Forum and the volatility in the global markets.
In the coming week, Indian markets will be focusing on the macroeconomic data and global cues. The progress in the monsoon, FIIs inflow, and crude oil prices will also remain focused and set the market direction next week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 3- 7 July 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
On Friday, Nifty witnessed a spectacular day touching 19200 levels during the intraday session. The major frontline stocks participated and ended with the highest weekly gain of the year after touching the Nifty index at the lowest level near the 18650 to the 19200 zone.
The 19000 zone would now remain as the crucial support level for the Nifty index, while the next upside fresh targets would be expected at around the 19600-19700 zone during the week.
The Bank Nifty also finally moved above the crucial resistance barrier of the 44500 zone to give a strong closing near 44750 levels. The major frontline banking stocks have started showing strength and moving higher with improving bias.
The Bank Nifty index would have the next upside targets of 45900- 46000 levels and the 44000 zone would remain as the important near-term support zone. The Bank Nifty index would have a weekly range of 43600-46200 levels
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Progress in Monsoon
This season monsoon rain arrived late but covered almost all parts of the country ahead of normal duration. The June month ended with a rain deficiency of only 10% on Friday, recovered most of its early deficiency in the last week of the month. However, IMD forecasts the rain deficiency may be covered to a large extent in July, as one-third of the total rainfall received in this month.
Last week, the rally in domestic markets was due to good progress in the monsoon. Investors should closely monitor the monsoon progress in July, as normal monsoon rain evenly spread across the country is good for agriculture and the economy.
Macroeconomic data
On Friday, the government data showed India’s infrastructure output grew at 4.3% on a YoY basis in May, due to a surge in cement, steel, and fertilizer output. Five out of the eight sectors posted YoY output growth in May, according to the data. According to RBI data India’s forex reserve fell $2.9 billion and stood at $593.2 billion as of June 23.
On Saturday, the Ministry of Finance said that India’s GST collection at Rs 1.61 lakh crore in June, up 11.7% from the last year. The country’s fiscal deficit for the first two months of FY 2023-24 stood at 2.10 lakh crore rupees or 11.8% of annual estimates, government data showed on Friday. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 12.3% reported as compared to the same period last year.
The domestic market will first react positively to the economic data released during the weekend. Other than this, the market will react to the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data to be released on Monday and Wednesday respectively.
Auto Sales Number
Auto stocks will be in focus next week, as automakers started announcing their June sales figures from July 1 onwards. According the market experts sales of two-wheelers will remain strong in June, as sales will pick up in rural areas and stable demand in urban markets.
Passenger vehicle sales are estimated to increase moderately due to a slowdown in sales of small cars, while sales of Commercial vehicles continue to be hit because of pre-buying in March ahead of price hikes in April. Traders having a position in auto stokes should remain cautious on Monday.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes ended higher during the week. The global market sentiments were upbeat due to strong economic data releases in the US showing that the economy is resilient, while the inflation is cooling. The ease in inflation data in Europe and the stimulus hope from Beijing to boost the Chinese economy also weighed on the market sentiments. However, the hawkish tone of the Policymakers in the ECB Central Bank’s Forum capped the market upside during the week.
In the coming week, the global markets will focus on the PMI data, US Non-farm payroll data, monthly unemployment rate, and FOMC minutes of the last meeting. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction in the coming week are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 3 July 2023 | Tankan Large Manufacturer PMI Final Q2 | Japan |
| 3 July 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI June | Japan |
| 3 July 2023 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI June | China |
| 3 July 2023 | HCOB Manufacturing PMI June | EA |
| 3 July 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI June | GB |
| 3 July 2023 | S&P Global/ISM Manufacturing PMI June | US |
| 5 July 2023 | Jibun Bank Services PMI June | Japan |
| 5 July 2023 | Caixin Services PMI June | China |
| 5 July 2023 | HCOB Services PMI June | EA |
| 5 July 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI June | GB |
| 5 July 2023 | PPI May | EA |
| 5 July 2023 | Factory Order May | US |
| 5 July 2023 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 6 July 2023 | Retail Sales May | EA |
| 6 July 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp | US |
| 6 July 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 6 July 2023 | S&P Global/ISM Services PMI June | US |
| 7 July 2023 | Halifax House Price Index | GB |
| 7 July 2023 | Unemployment Rate June | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The oil prices rose more than 1% on Friday after the release of inflation data in the US. The cooling inflation data in the US suggest that Fed may not be hawkish in the next meeting, which actually boosted the stock and oil prices on Friday. On a weekly basis, the New York-traded WTI crude oil gained 2.1% during the week, while London-traded Brent Crude was up by 1.5% for the week.
However, slow demand from China is still a concern for the oil markets. The stimulus hope from Beijing and the impact of Saudi Arabia’s production cut from July could see a spike in oil prices in the coming week. Traders should remain cautious and track the crude oil prices in the coming week.
FII & DIIs flow
Both the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in the Indian equity markets, they bought Rs Rs 20361.75 during the holiday-shorten week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net sellers last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 1564.6 crore.
On a monthly basis, FIIs and DIIs are both net buyers in the Indian equity markets. FIIs are net buyers for the last four consecutive months and bought around Rs 45K crore in June. Meanwhile, after selling in May, DIIs invested a net of around Rs 4.5k crore in June.
With the strong FII inflow, the domestic indexes hit new record highs last week. Traders should follow FIIs and DIIs trading activity closely in the coming week to gauge the market direction.
Conclusion
The positive momentum is likely to continue in the Indian stock markets next week. However, traders should remain cautious and track the global market trends in the coming week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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