Expert view on Market Next Week – 30 Aug- 3 Sept 2021
Expert view on Market Next Week – 30Aug- 3Sept 2021–Indian stock markets gained around 1.5 percent during the week ended 27 August. The broader markets outperformed as Nifty midcap and smallcap indexes closed more than 2 percent during the week. The domestic equity markets gained with the support of strong global cues, positive FDI data, and hopes of a rebound in economic growth. However, the upside remained capped due to the concerns about the third wave of coronavirus cases as Kerala reported more than 30k fresh cases in the last three days.
Factors that may impact the Indian stock market next week are given below and an expert view on Nifty and Bank Nifty futures for next week (30Aug- 3Sept 2021)
Macroeconomic data
In the coming week, the GDP numbers for the Q1FY22 ( April-June) end quarter will be announced. The market is eagerly waiting for the GDP number, last week SBI in its Ecowrap research report projected 18.5 percent growth in the June end quarter due to the low base effect. However, the expectation is less than the 21.4 percent growth projected by the Reserve Bank of India. The other economic data that are going to impact the market next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Infrastructure Output |
| 31 Aug 2021 | GDP Growth Q1 FY22 |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Markit Manufacturing PMI |
| 2 Sept 2021 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp |
| 3 Sept 2021 | Markit Service PMI |
Auto Sales Numbers
After the easing of the Covid-19 restrictions, the Indian automobile industry has registered healthy sales growth as the demand got increased. At the same time, the domestic auto sector continues to face supply chain headwinds, especially due to the semiconductor chips shortage. Auto production is set to dip further in August and September as the chip shortage crisis deepens, which may impact sales. Traders having positions in auto sectors need to be cautious on 1st September as auto sales numbers are going to release.
Global market cues
Last week, the global markets helped the domestic equity markets to trade higher. The positive global economic data, USFDA’s full approval of Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine have supported the global markets to trade higher during the week ended 27 August. The US markets gained on Friday after Fed Chair Powell stressed that the central bank shouldn’t overreact to a recent spike in inflation. The macroeconomic data for the major global markets for the next week are mentioned below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 30 August 2021 | Retail Sales | Japan |
| 31 August 2021 | Unemployment Rate | Japan |
| 31 August 2021 | Industrial Production | Japan |
| 31 August 2021 | NBS Manufg and Non Manufg PMI | China |
| 31 August 2021 | Consumer Confidence | Japan |
| 31 August 2021 | BoE Consumer Credit | GB |
| 01 Sept 2021 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI | Japan |
| 01 Sept 2021 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | China |
| 01 Sept 2021 | Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | GB |
| 01 Sept 2021 | Markit Manufacturing PMI | US |
| 02 Sept 2021 | Balance of Trade | US |
| 02 Sept 2021 | Jobless Claim- 4 week Avg | US |
| 03 Sept 2021 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI | Japan |
| 03 Sept 2021 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | China |
| 03 Sept 2021 | Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | GB |
| 03 Sept 2021 | Unemployment Rate Monthly | US |
| 03 Sept 2021 | Markit Manufacturing PMI | US |
Expert view on Nifty & Bank Nifty Futures next week (30 Aug- 3 Sept 2021)
Expert view on Nifty Futures for the next week (30 Aug- 3 Sept 2021)
Primary Trend of NSE Nifty index futures for next week: Positive
Range-Bound Trend of Nifty futures: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 16800 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 16600
Suppose Nifty share price in futures Moves Above 16731 and sustain. Then you should Buy Nifty futures with 1st Target of 16758 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 16670 FOR the Target of 16758- 16798- 16827- 16855
Suppose Nifty share price in futures Moves Below 16670 and sustain. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 16643 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 16731. FOR the Target of 16643- 16614- 16565 -16515
Expert view on Bank Nifty Futures for next week (30 Aug- 3 Sept 2021)
Primary Trend of Bank Nifty index future for the week: Positive
Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty share price in future: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 36200, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 35400
Suppose the Bank Nifty share price in the futures Moves Above 35770 and sustains. Then you should Buy Bank Nifty futures with the 1st Target of 35860 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 35595. FOR the Target of 35860 – 35940- 36180- 36360
If Bank Nifty shares price in the future Moves Below 35595 and sustained. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 35430 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 35770. FOR the Target of 35430- 34325- 35150 – 35040
FII & DIIs investment in Indian stock markets
FIIs inflow into Indian markets is being drained out even as the economy opens up on the back of decreasing Covid-19 cases and strengthening vaccination drive in the country. FIIs basically withdrawing money from emerging markets such as India, on the fear of Federal Reserves tightening is monetary policy and expected to hike interest rate at the end of the year.
On a weekly as well as a monthly basis, FIIs were the sellers and DIIs were the buyers in the cash market segment. FIIs sold Rs 6833.33 crore while DIIs bought Rs 6382.57 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 27 August 2021. Traders need to follow FIIs activity, a heavy outflow by FIIs can create a negative sentiment in the markets.
Coronavirus risk & Vaccination
India recorded 46759 fresh cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hrs on Saturday morning as per the health ministry. Kerala alone reported above 30K fresh cash on a daily basis for the last three days. The deadly infection is declining in India except for Kerala whereas the delta variants of Covid-19 infections are rising in various Asian and western countries. The fear of third-wave looms over the country and that is why some states decided to continue covid related restrictions to control the spread.
On the vaccine front, India has administered more than 62 crore coronavirus vaccines so far and achieved a milestone of administering one crore vaccines on a single day on Friday. India has accelerated Covid-19 vaccination to avoid any major damage in the third wave if it happens. Traders need to keep track of fresh covid cases and its restriction imposed in various states.
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Happy Investing!!
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