Share Market Outlook: 7 key factors that will influence the market next week

 

The Indian stock market closed in a negative note last week. The benchmark indices corrected more than 1% on a weekly basis due to the profit booking on banking, financial, and oil and gas sectors. You can read last week’s detailed market updates here.

 

Key factors that will influence the market next week

 

The next week’s market trend will be decided by below given seven key factors. The Indian market may see some consolidation with negative bias in the week ahead. Traders are advised to remain cautious during the week unless the market trends are clear. So let’s check out the key factors now.

 

Auto Sales Numbers

The market may see some improvement in July Auto sales numbers compared to June, the numbers are expected on 3rd August. The ease in lockdown has increased the production capacity in may auto manufacturing units. The dealers have also started functioning and the rural demands are also picking up. 

Though we may not see sales improvement in all the automobile companies. The company that focuses on rural areas may see some improvement in sales. 

 

Global Market

The global market sentiments were not so encouraging for the domestic market last week. In the coming week, there will be a concern about the quarterly earnings in Europe and the US companies. Job growth data announced last week in the US was weak, investors should keep a close eye in the next week’s data. 

The delay in the stimulus package for the second wave of coronavirus is another concern in the US that investors should track closely. Other than this, investors should also watch out for Japan’s GDP growth, CPI data, PMI data for the US, UK, Hong Kong in the next week.

 

News on Coronavirus

Initially, people never thought that coronavirus will last so long or will have a second or third wave. The still-rising or second wave of coronavirus has almost shattered the V-shape economic recovery in many countries.

The global research firms have also started saying that V-shaped growth for the Indian economy is not possible and there would be a dip in the third quarter due to extended lockdown and delay in the vaccine. In India, the total cases of coronavirus crossed more than 17 Lakhs so far. Any negative news on this front in the next week will see some correction in the market.

 

Macro Economics

The biggest event that we have next week is the RBI Monetary Policy on the 6th of Aug. In the coming Monetary policy, RBI may pause the rate cut. Technically speaking as inflation is continuously increasing and it is at 6.09% in June, RBI may not be comfortable for cutting the interest rate this time

Other than the RBI Monetary Policy, an investor should also watch out for PMI manufacturing and PMI Service data next week

Macro Data Next Week
03 Aug	Manufacturing PMI
05 Aug	Service PMI
06 Aug	RBI Monetary Policy
07 Aug	Foreign Exchange Reserve

 

Quarterly Results 

Most of the Nifty50 companies already announced their Q1FY21 results in July.  Now there are very few companies left to announce their Q1 results next week. For the next week, the below companies will announce their Q1FY21 results along with bunches of midcaps and smallcap companies. 

Q1 Results dates for Nifty50 Stocks
7th Aug	Cipla
7th Aug	M&M

You can also read the detailed analysis of last week’s quarterly results here

 

Technical levels of Nifty and Bank Nifty share price

 

 

The Nifty share price in futures for next week

Primary Trend of Nifty share price futures next week: Mild Negative

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty futures: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11180 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 10850

If Nifty share price in futures Moves Above 11128 and sustain. Then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11151 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 11026 FOR the Target of 11151- 11180 – 11215- 11280

If Nifty share price in futures Moves Below 11026 and sustain. Then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11002 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 10950. FOR the Target of 11002-  10970- 10906-10840

 

 

Bank Nifty share price in futures for next week

Primary Trend of Nifty Bank share price in future for next week: Mild Negative

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Bank share price in future: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 22000, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short  Covering (Buy) @ 21200

Nifty Bank share price in future Moves Above 21770 and sustain. Then you should Buy with the 1st Target of 21870 during the day with a Stop Loss of  21520. FOR the Target of 21870 – 21975- 22060- 22280

If Nifty Bank share price in future Moves Below 21520 and sustained. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 21450 during the day with a Stop Loss of 22770. FOR the Target of 21450 – 21335- 21220-21000

 

FIIs and DIIs movement

On a monthly basis in July, FIIs/FPIs were the net buyers and DIIs were the net sellers in the cash segment. FIIs/FPIs bought Rs 2490.19 crores whereas DIIs sold Rs 10007.88 crores in the cash segment. 

The last week’s trend for FII/FPIs was negative, FIIs/FPIs/DIIs were sold in the cash segment. If this trend continues then we may see some selling pressure in the market next week. The investor should closely monitor the FIIs/FPIs/DIIs movement in the next week.

 

Conclusions

As per the technical chart, the market is looking mild bearish. Next week we may see some volatility in the market particularly in the banking sector due to the RBI monetary policy. Traders are advised to trade with strict stop loss in the market.

 

Traders can also follow our Daily Live Market Updates and Nifty and Bank Nifty futures live calls on our website.

You can also read, Best Stock Market Books to Make Money

 

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Happy Investing!

Editor’s Desk

 

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