Stock Market Prediction Next Week (31 July- 4 Aug 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (31 July- 4 Aug 2023): Indian stock markets snapped a 4-week winning streak and ended marginally lower on Friday. The domestic markets declined, as FIIs turned into net sellers last week. The profit booking at higher levels in heavyweight stocks also dragged the benchmark indices below their flat line. However, the broader markets outperformed their larger peers during the week.
In the coming week, markets will be focusing mainly on economic data, quarterly results, and global cues. The other key factors likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (31 July – 4 Aug 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
Nifty after resisting near the psychological barrier of the 20000 zone has slipped down and maintained support near 19600 levels on twice occasions. This indicates a strong base for the Nifty and further rise is anticipated.
A decisive breach and sustaining below the 19600 zone shall weaken the trend in Nifty and could see a further slide, with the next major support zone lying near the 19250-19300 zone. Nifty could trade in the range of 19300-20000 levels during the week.
BankNifty after resisting near the 46300 zone has slipped down and maintained support near the 45000 levels and with the 46300 zone acting as the important hurdle. A decisive breach above that zone is needed to carry on the momentum still further ahead with the next targets of 48000-48200 anticipated.
At the same time, a decisive breach below the 45000 level would further weaken the Bank Nifty index and can extend the downward journey with the next major support visible level near 44200-44300. The support for the week is seen at 44300- 46500 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves saw a dip of $1.9 billion to $607.03 billion reserves for the week ending on 21 July. In the coming week, Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers will be announced for the month of July.
As per market experts, the numbers are expected to decline slightly compared to the previous month but will remain in expansion. The other macroeconomic data including GST collections, likely to impact the domestic stock markets are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 31 July 2023 | Govt Budget Value |
| 31 July 2023 | Infrastructure Output |
| 1 August 2023 | S&P Global PMI Manufacturing July |
| 3 August 2023 | S&P Global Services & Composite PMI July |
| 4 August 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserves |
Auto Sales
The Nifty auto index gained around 2.5% in July, while on a weekly basis, it declined around 0.70 percent. Hero Motors gained the most around 12% while Eicher Motors declined around 5% in July. Auto stocks will remain in focus next week, as various auto companies will start announcing their monthly sales numbers for July starting from 1 August 2023. Traders having positions in auto stocks remain cautious.
1st Quarter Earnings
We are in the mid of the first quarterly earnings season and so far we have seen steady growth in Q1FY24 results. The growth was seen mainly in Banking, Auto, and Oil & Gas Companies, while other sectors may report muted profit growth. In the coming week, investors will be busy analyzing corporate earrings, as 10 Nifty 50 companies are going to announce their Q1FY24 results and are likely to influence the market, the schedule is given below.
| Q1FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 31 July 2023 | Maruti |
| 31 July 2023 | UPL |
| 2 August 2023 | Titan |
| 3 August 2023 | Adani Enterprise |
| 3 August 2023 | Bharti Airtel |
| 3 August 2023 | Eicher Motors |
| 3 August 2023 | Sun Pharma |
| 4 August 2023 | Britannia |
| 4 August 2023 | M&M |
| 4 August 2023 | SBI |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets closed higher this week. The strong economic data and some upbeat quarterly earnings from the US helped the global markets to close higher this week. Beijing pledged to support the ailing world’s second-largest economy also aided the markets sentiments in Asia and Europe. The in-line expectations of the US Fed and ECB monetary policy also supported the global markets.
In the coming week, global markets will focus on macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. The PMI data from various countries, JOLT’s job openings report, Unemployment rate, Non-Farm payroll data from the US, and the Bank of England interest rate decision will remain in focus and set the global market direction next week.
Earnings season will continue to remain in focus next week, some big corporates including Apple and Amazon will announce their quarterly earnings in the coming week. The other key global macroeconomic data likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 31 July 2023 | Retail Sales-June | Japan |
| 31 July 2023 | Industrial Production June | Japan |
| 31 July 2023 | NBS Mafg & Non-Mafg PMI- July | China |
| 31 July 2023 | Consumer Confidence-July | Japan |
| 31 July 2023 | Housing starts-June | Japan |
| 31 July 2023 | BoE Consumer Credit June | GB |
| 31 July 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 Flash | EA |
| 31 July 2023 | Inflation Rate Flash July | EA |
| 31 July 2023 | Core CPI Flash July | EA |
| 1 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate June | Japan |
| 1 August 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI July | Japan |
| 1 August 2023 | Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI July | China |
| 1 August 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | GB |
| 1 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate June | EA |
| 1 August 2023 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI-July | US |
| 1 August 2023 | JOLTs Job Opening June | US |
| 1 August 2023 | ISM Manufacturing Employment July | US |
| 2 August 2023 | BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes | Japan |
| 2 August 2023 | ADP Employment Change July | US |
| 3 August 2023 | Jibun Bank Services PMI July | Japan |
| 3 August 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI | GB |
| 3 August 2023 | S&P/ISM Global Services PMI July | US |
| 3 August 2023 | Ciaxin Services PMI July | China |
| 3 August 2023 | HCOB Services PMI July | EA |
| 3 August 2023 | PPI June | EA |
| 3 August 2023 | BoE Interest Rate decision | GB |
| 3 August 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 4 August 2023 | Retail Sales June | EA |
| 4 August 2023 | Unemployment RateJuly | US |
| 4 August 2023 | Non-Farm Payroll July | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The Crude oil prices gained for the fifth consecutive week, in the month of July crude oil gained as much as 14 percent. The main reason for rising crude oil prices is Saudi’s production cut, strong US economic growth, and a decline in US jobless claims. On a weekly basis, the WTI crude oil prices gained 4.6 percent while Brent crude was up 4.8 percent.
In the coming week, oil prices are expected to remain strong ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which is scheduled on Friday 4th August 2023. Experts feel that crude oil prices could touch $86 per barrel ahead of the OPEC+ members meeting next week. The rising crude oil prices could dampen the domestic market sentiments. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil price trend next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were turned into the net sellers in the Indian equity markets, they offloaded shares worth Rs 3074.71 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were turned into the net buyers during the week, they bought shares worth Rs 5233.79 crore, more than the FIIs selling, and somewhat supported the domestic market from a big fall.
The domestic markets declined in the last two trading sessions, as FIIs were the net sellers in the Indian equity cash segment and offloaded Rs 5003.35 crore. Though on a monthly basis, FIIs were the net buyers of around 14K crore, but in two sessions they sold heavily and this is a concern.
If the FIIs selling spree continues in the coming week we may see more downfall in the Indian markets. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs activity in the coming week to know the market direction.
Other Key Factors
Other than the above factors, traders should keep updated on the progress in the monsoon rain and the movement of the rupee against the dollar in the coming week. Any stimulus news from China can also improve the Asian market sentiments in the coming week.
Conclusion
The Indian equity markets are likely to bounce back in the coming week. Traders need to closely monitor the above-mentioned factors, which can influence the stock market prediction next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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