Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15- 19 May 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15- 19 May 2023): Indian stock markets made modest gains during the week that ended on 12 May. Sensex and Nifty advanced 1.59 percent and 1.36 percent respectively. The healthy Q4 earnings and FIIs inflow supported the domestic markets. However, the upside was limited due to weak global cues.
In the coming week, the local stock markets continue to focus on quarterly earnings, economic data, and global cues. As FIIs are playing a major role to uplift the domestic markets in recent days, their buying spree should be closely monitored. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15- 19 May 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
The Nifty index consolidated quite significantly near the 18300 zone for some time, now indicating strength in turning up the daily trend, if the Nifty index move above the 18350 zone would trigger further fresh upward movement in the coming days.
As said earlier, the zone near 18200 has strong support for the Nifty index, as most of the frontline stocks are well placed with positive bias and trend maintained, further rise is anticipated. The support for the Nifty index next week is seen at 18000 and the resistance is at 18700 levels.
Bank Nifty also has slowly and gradually moved above the previous peak 43700-43750 zone to show improvement in the bias and trend with most of the blue-chip banking stocks like Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and SBI well placed and anticipated for further gains.
For the Bank Nifty index, a decisive breach above the 44200 zone would enter into new territory with fresh upside targets opened. The Bank Nifty index will have a weekly range of 42700-45200 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
On Friday, the economic data released during post-market showed that the country’s CPI inflation eased 18 months low to 4.7% in April. Retail inflation was reported at 5.66% in March. The CPI inflation is now within the RBI’s tolerance band. Other data showed that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew at 1.1% in March as against 5.6% in February. According to RBI data showed the weekly foreign exchange reserve was up by $ 7.196 billion as on May 5, 2023.
The dip in inflation and decline in IIP growth has confirmed the hope for a rate hike pause in the upcoming RBI MPC meeting. On Monday market will first react positively to the economic data. WPI inflation data is also due on Monday during market hours. The other macroeconomic data which are due next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 15 May 2023 | WPI Inflation April |
| 15 May 2023 | Bal of Trade Exp and Import April |
| 19 May 0203 | Bank Loan and Deposit Growth May |
| 19 May 0203 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Q4 Earnings
We are in the last leg of the Q4 earnings season, and most of the Nifty companies have already announced their March-end quarter results. There is a total of six Nifty companies that will be announcing their Q4 earnings in the coming week. So far the Q4 earnings have been in line with the expectation with some positive surprises.
Though tech companies have reported weak Q4 earnings, were offset by strong earnings in the banking, financial, and automobile sectors. Meanwhile, in the oil & gas sector, the reported 4th quarterly results so far have been above estimates. Below are the six Nifty companies that will announce their quarterly earnings next week and can have a large impact on the domestic markets.
| Q4FY23 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 16 May 2023 | Bharti Airtel |
| 18 May 2023 | ITC |
| 18 May 2023 | SBI |
| 19 May 2023 | JSW Steel |
| 19 May 2023 | NTPC |
| 20 May 2023 | Divis Lab |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets closed mixed during the week that ended on 12 May. The US inflation data, quarterly earnings, banking turmoil, BoE interest rate, Inflation data from China, UK’s GDP data were in focus during the week. Barring Nasdaq and Nikkei all other global key indices, Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, CAC, DAX, Shanghai, and Hang Seng closed in the red on a weekly basis.
The coming week will be the last big week on the earning front and the global markets will remain volatile, as major retailer including Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Alibaba, among others, will be announcing their Q1 earnings. The US April retail sales data, Housing starts, and existing home sales in the US will be the focus during the week. The GDP growth rate from Japan and Eurozone is going to impact the global stock markets in the coming week.
Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 15 May 2023 | PPI April | Japan |
| 15 May 2023 | Industrial Production Mar | EA |
| 16 May 2023 | Industrial Production April | China |
| 16 May 2023 | Retail Sales April | China |
| 16 May 2023 | Unemployment Rate April | China |
| 16 May 2023 | Unemployment Rate March | GB |
| 16 May 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q1 2nd Estimate | EA |
| 16 May 2023 | Employment Change Q1 | EA |
| 16 May 2023 | Balance of trade March | EA |
| 16 May 2023 | Retail Sales April | US |
| 16 May 2023 | Industrial Production April | US |
| 17 May 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q1 Prelm | Japan |
| 17 May 2023 | House Price Index April | China |
| 17 May 2023 | Industrial Production March | Japan |
| 17 May 2023 | CPI and Core Inflation April | EA |
| 18 May 2023 | Balance of trade April Exp and Imp | Japan |
| 18 May 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 18 May 2023 | Existing Home Sales April | US |
| 19 May 2023 | Gfk Consumer Confidence May | GB |
| 19 May 2023 | CPI and Core Inflation Rate April | Japan |
| 19 May 2023 | Fed Chair Powell’s speech | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The Crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive week, both the benchmarks WTI and Brent crude were down by 1.5% during the week. After the production cut by OPEC+, the supply fear was balanced by the economic concerns in US and China.
The slowdown in China and the recession fear from the US along with many uncertainties like the regional banking crisis, interest rate hikes, and debt ceiling, etc slow down the demand for crude oil prices, and the prices remain steady. The lower or steady crude oil prices will continue to support the domestic stock markets in the coming week
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign investors made one of the biggest weekly buying during 8-12 May in the current year. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) buying encouraged the retail investors during the week. FIIs were the net buyers and consistently bought in all the trading sessions during the week. They bought shares worth Rs 7750.35 crore while DII were net sellers, and they offloaded Rs 1261.98 crore during the week that ended on 12 May.
Traders should closely monitor the FII’s buying spree next week, as the FIIs inflow could help the benchmarks to touch a new high again.
Conclusion
The overall domestic market sentiment is positive but expected to remain volatile in the coming week. The quarterly earnings and global cues will drive the markets next week. Traders will get enough trading opportunities in the coming week but should trade with proper strategy and risk management. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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You may also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 15 May 2023
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