Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14 Feb – 18 Feb 2022)
Stock Market Prediction next week ( 14 Feb- 18 Feb 2022): Indian equity markets closed lower for the week ended 11 February amid weakness in the global markets. The domestic markets started last week on a pessimistic note, due to negative global cues. The benchmark indices gain in the mid of the week due to the ultra dovish RBI policy. Indices erased all weekly gains on the last day of the week, as the US inflation and bond yields touched a record high.
In the coming week, the inflation data will set the market direction as several countries including India will release inflation data for the month of January.The other key factors that are likely to influence the stock market prediction next week (14 Feb- 18 Feb 2022 )
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 18 Feb 2022)- The key factors to watch out
Inflation, IIP, and other Macroeconomic data
The country’s industrial growth for the month of December fell 10 months low at 0.4 percent in December as against 1.3 percent a month ago. This is due to slow manufacturing, capital goods, and consumer durable output. The reason for the slow industrial growth is due to Omicron variants, the full impact of the restrictions of new variants can be seen in the next month.
India’s retail inflation for the month of January is expected on 14 February after the market hours. It is expected to remain high due to higher consumer goods and telecom prices. The country’s CPI-based inflation is likely accelerated to 6 percent in January as per the Reuters Poll and will touch the upper limit of the RBI’s tolerance band. The inflation above 6 percent can make the stock market volatile on Tuesday, traders need to remain cautious.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 14 February 2022 | WPI Inflation |
| 14 February 2022 | CPI Inflation |
| 14 February 2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Jan |
| 18 February 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Geopolitical tension
The US markets were trading higher initially on Friday, witnessed sharp selling pressure in the late trading session after the fresh geopolitical tension between the Russia-Ukraine.
This tension also led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices which is not good for oil-importing like India. As per the latest news published on BBC, the US government has asked to leave the American citizen immediately as Russia could invade Ukraine at any time. Traders should keep tacking the news related to Russia/Ukraine tension, as the tension can create volatility in the domestic market on Monday, next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week, the global market played a vital role to influence the domestic markets. The fear of aggressive rate hikes by Feb, record-high US inflation data, and higher US bond yields was negatively impacted the Indian market sentiment.
A heavy sell-off was witnessed in US markets in the late trading session on Friday due to the fresh geopolitical tension between Russia/Ukraine. Asian markets may react negatively to the news and we may see some selling pressure on Monday. Other than the geopolitical tension, the inflation rate will set the market direction next week as several countries will announce their inflation data.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 14 February 22 | GDP growth Prel Q4 | Japan |
| 14 February 22 | GDP growth Annual Prel | Japan |
| 14 February 22 | Industrial Production Dec | Japan |
| 15 February 22 | Unemployment Rate Dec | GB |
| 15 February 22 | PPI Jan | US |
| 15 February 22 | Reuters Tankan Index Feb | Japan |
| 16 February 22 | Inflation Rate Jan | China |
| 16 February 22 | PPI Jan | China |
| 16 February 22 | Inflation Rate Jan | GB |
| 16 February 22 | Retail Sales Jan | US |
| 16 February 22 | Export/Import | US |
| 16 February 22 | Industrial Production Jan | US |
| 16 February 22 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 16 February 22 | Export/Import | Japan |
| 17 February 22 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 17 February 22 | Inflation Rate Jan | Japan |
| 18 February 22 | Retail Sales Jan | GB |
| 18 February 22 | Fed’s Speech | US |
Nifty & Bank Nifty prediction for the next week (14 Feb- 18 Feb 2022)
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 17000 to 17800. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend is Negative
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 37400 to 40000. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty is Negative.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates.
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Q3 Corporate Earnings
We are in the last phase of corporate earnings season. Most of the Nifty 50 companies have already announced their third-quarter earnings. Next week, below are the Nifty 50 companies that will announce their results.
| Q3 FY22 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Coal India |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Grasim |
| 17 Feb 2022 | Nestle India |
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
In India, covid cases are declining day by day, the country’s active cases are now 6.10 lakhs. Most of the states have lifted covid related restrictions now. The openness of the business is positive for the Indian Stock Markets and we may see its positive impact on the economic data in the coming months.
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold in the equity cash segment, for the week ended 11 February whereas the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the buyers. FIIs sold Rs 5641.81 crores, while DIIs bought Rs 3562.19 crore in the cash market segment during the week.
On a monthly basis, FIIs sold Rs 9712.60 crores and DIIs have invested 5837.25 crores in the equity cash segment in February. FIIs were the buyers on the last day of the week is a positive sign for the market. Traders need to closely monitor the institutional activity next week.
Bank Fraud Case
Other than the above factors, on Saturday CBI has booked ABG Shipyard Ltd and its then Chairman and MD along with others for the biggest bank fraud case. The first complaint of cheating and misuse of funds was lodged in November 2019. It was the biggest bank fraud in the consortium of banks led by SBI of over Rs 22842 crore. On Monday, we may see some selling pressure in the banking sectors, traders having exposure in SBI, ICICI Bank needs to remain cautious.
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