Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 Dec- 17 Dec 2021)

 

Stock Market Prediction next week,13 – 17 Dec 2021: Indian equity benchmark indexes closed higher for the second consecutive week ended 10 December. The broader markets outshine last week in comparison to benchmark indexes. Markets gained with the support of positive global cues after the confirmation that the Omicron virus may not be as virulent or as pathogenic as the delta variant. The RBI’s status quo decision and accommodative policy stance have also helped to close the domestic markets higher for the second consecutive week.

However, the upside of the markets remained capped due to continued FIIs outflow. Traders were cautious at the end of the week due to the country’s IIP and US inflation data, announced later in the evening on Friday. 

 

Key factors that are likely to influence the stock market prediction next week 

 

Omicron virus & Risk

 

Indian reported a total of  33 cases of new Covid variants till Saturday, the number was 4 in the last week. Out of the total cases around 50% of cases are from Maharashtra. Most of the Omicron cases are people who returned from South African or neighboring countries. India will keep scheduled international passengers flights suspended till January, as the government said on Thursday. All detected Omicron cases have mild symptoms as per the report. Still, there is uncertainty about the Omicron virus, scientists are working around the clock to get a better understanding of the Omicron virus.

Regarding Covid-19 cases, India reported below 10K cases on a daily basis in the last week. India’s active cases are now below 1Lakh, the lowest in 559 days. India has administered more than 133 crores covid vaccine so far. The decline in the Covid-19 virus is due to the higher vaccination in India. This is helping the country’s economic recovery and supporting the equity markets. 

The fear of the Omicron virus subsides last week after the statement from scientists that it is milder than delta variants. It was also clear that the virus is highly transmissible and a separate vaccine is not required for the new variant Omicron. The global markets reacted positively to the news last week but still, there is some uncertainty on this front as the virus is surging in more than 50 countries. Traders should keep a close eye on the news of the Omicron virus next week.

 

Inflation & other economic data

 

Analysts are expecting slightly higher inflation for the month of November. In October the retail inflation rose marginally higher but remained within the RBI range of 4-6 percent. There are several factors like rising vegetable prices, elevated fuel cost, and rising input cost for companies, these indicate that the country’s November’s inflation could be somewhere between 4.5- 5.3 percent.

The other economic data that are going to announce next were are given below.

 

Economic Data Next Week
13-December21	Inflation rate- CPI Nov
14-December21	WPI Inflation rate Nov
15-December21	Balance of Trade- Exp/Imp Nov
17-December21	Foreign Exchange Reserve

 

FOMC Meeting

 

Next week, the Federal Reserve could decide to end up its bond-buying program and would signal to start the interest rate hike in 2022. Investors are expecting a hawkish policy and somewhat it was discounted in the market so far. Analysts don’t expect much market reaction unless the central bank’s surprise or its forecast for an interest hike is more aggressive than expected.

 

Global stock market Cues 

 

The global stock markets gained during the week ended 10 December. Global markets gained as the fear of new covid variant and its impact on the economic growth subsides. The positive economic data in several countries have added some optimism to the market sentiments. 

In the coming week, there are a few important events lined up, the schedule of those important events are given below

 

Important Global Macro Data Next Week
13 December 21	Tankan Manufacturer Index	Japan
14 December 21	Industrial Production Final Oct	Japan
14 December 21	Unemployment Rate Final Oct	GB
14 December 21	PPI MOM Nov	US
15 December 21	Industrial Production Final Nov	China
15 December 21	House Of Price Index Nov	China
15 December 21	Retail Sales Nov	China
15 December 21	Unemployment Rate Nov	China
15 December 21	Inflation Rate Nov	GB
15 December 21	Retail Sales Nov	US
15 December 21	Export / Import Nov	US
15 December 21	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	US
16 December 21	Balance Of Trade Exp/Imp	Japan
16 December 21	Jibun Bank PMI Flash Dec	Japan
16 December 21	Markit/CIPS PMI Flash Dec	GB
16 December 21	BOE Interest rate decision	GB
16 December 21	Initial Jobless Claim	US
16 December 21	Industrial Production Nov	US
16 December 21	Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash Dec	US
17 December 21	BOJ Interest rate decision	Japan
17 December 21	Retail Sales Nov	GB

 

Stock Market Index: Nifty, Bank Nifty prediction ( spot price) next week:13 – 17 Dec 2021

 

On a weekly chart, the Nifty spot price current position is on Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if the Nifty spot price closes above 17680 for the target of 17960.

Bank Nifty spot price current position is Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Bank Nifty spot price closes above 37760 for the target of 38470.

 

FII & DIIs flow

 

Last week, the Foreign Institutional investors were the seller and sold 9203.47 crores in the cash market. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the buyers, they bought Rs 7212.35 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 10 December.

On a monthly basis in December FIIs sold Rs 16235.19 crores so far while DIIs tried to support the markets and bought Rs 13,700.80. The main factors that influence the FIIs to sell in the Indian markets are due to high valuations, Fed observations on accelerating tapering and inflation concern, and the potential impact of the Omicron variant on economic activity and corporate earnings. Traders need to monitor the FII’s mood in the next week to gauge the market direction. 

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You may also like to read, Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday, 13 Dec 2021

 

Happy Investing!!

Editor’s Desk

 

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