Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5 – 9 Feb 2024) – Analysing the Trend
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5 – 9 Feb 2024): Indian stock market indexes snapped a two-week losing streak and ended the budget week on a strong note. The domestic markets started the week on an optimistic note and remained volatile throughout the week.
The surge in US Treasury yields following the Fed’s monetary policy meeting and persistent FII outflows have negatively impacted the domestic market sentiments. However, strong manufacturing activity data, domestic institutional buying, and the Interim Budget have provided support to the local markets, helping the indices to close with significant gains.
In the upcoming week, RBI’s monetary policy will be in focus. The quarterly earnings and Services and Composite PMI data will be closely monitored during the week. On the global front, China’s inflation data, Services PMI data from several countries, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, and quarterly earnings will influence the market sentiments.
The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction in the next week are as follows;
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5 – 9 Feb 2024)
Stock Market Prediction: Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
On Friday, the Nifty index hit an All-Time high of 22126 during the intraday session but erased most of its gains in the post-lunch session and closed near 21850 levels with bias and sentiment still maintained positive.
As mentioned earlier, the index has maintained the important support zone of 21500 levels intact. On the upside, as of now, a close above 22000 is required to carry on with the positive momentum further ahead. In the week, the Nifty index could trade in a range between 21500 and 22300 levels.
The Bank Nifty index witnessed heavy profit booking at the higher level in the second half of the trading session after resisting near the 46900 zone to end near the low of 45950 levels.
The index would need a decisive close above the 46300 zone of the significant 50EMA level to confirm the further up move. The Bank Nifty index could trade in a range of 44800–47200 levels in the upcoming week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Quarterly Earnings
The third quarter earnings are in full swing. On Friday, Tata Motors announced its Q3 earrings after the market market close. The auto-making company beat Street estimates and increased the net profit two-fold propelled by strong sales in its British luxury car unit, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).
On Saturday, the State Bank of India reported its Q3 earnings, the public sector lender missed analysts’ expectations, as its net profit fell 35% in the December end quarter as compared to the same period last year on one-time pension provision. The traders will react to both the results, and the auto and banking sectors will remain in the spotlight on Monday. ,
Seven Nifty 50 companies will announce their third quarterly earnings in the upcoming week. The schedule is given below.
| Q3FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 5 February 2024 | Bharti Airtel |
| 6 February 2024 | Britannia |
| 7 February 2024 | Power Grid, |
| 7 February 2024 | Nestle |
| 7 February 2024 | Tata Consumer |
| 8 February 2024 | Grasim |
| 8 February 2024 | Apollo Hospital |
Domestic Economic Data
On the economic front, the monthly GST collections from online gaming companies have increased over 400% to about Rs 1,200 crore since October 1, since the 28% levy on e-gaming platforms has come into effect, a senior official said on Friday. In the upcoming week, the Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data will be released on Monday, February 5, 2024.
According to the flash HSBC services activity data, the Services PMI likely rose to a six-month high of 61.2 in January from 59 reported in December. The domestic markets will react positively to the in-line expectation of PMI data next week, and other economic data likely to influence are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 05 February 2024 | HSBC Services and Composite PMI Jan |
| 08 February 2024 | RBI Interest Rate Decision |
| 09 February 2024 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth Jan |
| 09 February 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting
The Reserve of India governor-headed six-member team will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting from 6th February to 8 February 2024. As widely expected RBI is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 6.50%. Last week’s 2024 interim Budget signaled that the Reserve Bank of India to consider a 50 basis points reduction in repo rates this year, according to the sources.
Economists are expecting ease of liquidity in the coming quarter followed by two consecutive rate cuts from RBI. More confirmation on this will boost the market sentiments. Traders will be closely monitoring the post-meeting comments of the RBI governor for more clues on the rate cut, inflation, and economic outlook
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Global Stock Market So Far
The worldwide stock markets closed mixed during the week that ended on February 2nd. The US stock market indexes closed higher due to optimistic earnings from Meta and Amazon that fueled the bullish bets on the entire tech space along with strong economic data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index closed at a fresh record high level on Friday. However, the upside was limited last week, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on the hopes of a March rate cut and weak quarterly earnings guidance from Microsoft and Alphabet.
European markets declined during the week even after the country’s economy managed to avoid recession in the December end quarter and the latest survey showed inflation slowed in January. The Asian stock market indexes mostly closed higher this week. The Chinese stock market indexes closed at a 5-year low, as the economic data released last week showed a mixed picture.
The sentiments in China and Hong Kong were downbeat as the Hong Kong court ordered China’s former property giant Evergrande to be liquidated after the company failed to reach a restructuring agreement with its creditors since it defaulted on its offshore bonds in December 2021.
You can also read – Global Stock Market Weekly Update: Mixed Signals from the US, Europe, and Asia
Global Stock Market Next Week
In the upcoming week, there are very few economic data lined up from the US markets. The ISM Services PMI data and Trade data will be in focus on the economic front. Traders will have a close eye on Fed officials’ comments next week, as diverse statements from various Fed officials lined up next week can create volatility.
On the earnings front, MacDonald, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Spotify, Alibaba, Walt Disney, S&P Global, Pepsico, and others will be announcing their fourth-quarter earnings next week.
Several countries will announce Services and Composite PMI numbers on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision and Inflation data from China are also likely to influence the global markets next week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 5 February 2024 | Jibun Bank Services PMI Jan | Japan |
| 5 February 2024 | Ciaxin Services PMI Jan | China |
| 5 February 2024 | HCOB Services and Composite PMI Jan | EA |
| 5 February 2024 | S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Jan | GB |
| 5 February 2024 | S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Jan | US |
| 5 February 2024 | PPI Dec | EA |
| 5 February 2024 | ISM Services PMI Jan | US |
| 6 February 2024 | Fed Bostic Speech | US |
| 6 February 2024 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor Jan | GB |
| 6 February 2024 | RBA Interest Rate Decision | AU |
| 6 February 2024 | Retail Sales Dec | EA |
| 6 February 2024 | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Feb | US |
| 6 February 2024 | Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec | EA |
| 7 February 2024 | Halifax Housing Price Index Jan | GB |
| 7 February 2024 | Balance of Trade Export& Import | US |
| 7 February 2024 | Fed Kugler & Barkin Speech | US |
| 8 February 2024 | Fed Bowman Speech | US |
| 8 February 2024 | Inflation Rate Jan | China |
| 8 February 2024 | PPI Inflation Jan | China |
| 8 February 2024 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 9 February 2024 | Current Account Prelim Q4 | China |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday and posted weekly losses after US strong job data, which reduced the chances of early interest rate cuts by Federal Reserves and could dampen crude demand. The slowdown in China’s economic growth and the potential for easing tensions in the Middle East also declined the oil prices.
In the week, the US-based WTI crude declined 7.35% while the London-based Brent Crude fell 7.44%. The higher interest rates could hit the economic growth and oil demand in major economies like the US and Europe, and the interest rates like to remain higher in these regions at least till mid-year. However, the lower crude oil prices are good for the domestic economy and stock markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net sellers in the last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 2008.68 crore in the Indian equity cash segment. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 10102.62 crore, more than 5X of FIIs selling during the week.
Traders should keep a close eye on the activity of FIIs and DIIs in the coming week. A shift to net buying by FIIs could potentially lead to new highs in the Indian markets.
Conclusion:
Indian Stock Market Prediction for Next Week: Last week, the Indian stock markets ended higher, and the global markets also closed mostly on a positive note on Friday. In the upcoming week focus will be mainly on the RBI monetary policy and quarterly earnings. The positive momentum in the markets is likely to continue but traders remain cautious at the higher level. Traders can follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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