Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 – 17 June 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 – 17 June 2022): The Indian equity markets declined more than 2 percent during the week ended 10 June. The market sentiments were downbeat as RBI raised the inflation forecast for the current year and hiked the repo rate by 50 basis points. The FIIs outflow, a surge in Crude Oil prices, and weak global cues were the other factors that hit the market sentiments last week.
In the coming week, there are some important events lined up. India’s inflation rate and the US Federal Reserve meeting will be the key focus for the markets next week. The scheduled for the other major events that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week are given below
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (13 to 17 June 2022)
Domestic macroeconomic data
According to the government, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of April jumped 7.1% YoY, as against 1.9% in March, the data was released on Friday post-market hours. On Monday, the CPI inflation data will be released, later in the day, market experts have estimated that May’s CPI inflation could be between 7.10% to 7.5%.
The Indian markets will remain volatile on Monday as the global sentiments are already negative. The strong IIP numbers can improve the domestic market sentiments during the day but again some cautiousness can be seen due to the CPI inflation rate which is expected later in the day. The other macroeconomic data that are expected during the week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 13-June- 2022 | CPI Inflation May |
| 14-June- 2022 | WPI Inflation May |
| 15-June- 2022 | Balance of Trade Final May |
| 15-June- 2022 | Exp/Import data |
| 17 June 2022 | Deposit and Loan Growth |
| 17 June 2022 | Foreign exchange Reserve |
Federal Reserves and other Central Bank’s Monetary Policy
In the coming week, the three central banks will announce their Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. All focus will be on the Federal Reserve policy on Wednesday after the shocking 40-year record high inflation rate reported in the US last Friday.
Investors are now expecting an aggressive rate hike by the Fed, which could be between 50-75 bps. Anything above 50 bps Fed’s rate hike will add more selling pressure in the global as well as domestic markets. The Bank of England is expected to hike 0.25 bps while the Bank of Japan will continue its current monetary policy easing.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week, the global stock markets were closed mixed. The US and European markets declined due to surging inflation and fear of aggressive interest rate hikes while major Asian market indexes in China and Japan closed higher. In the coming week, other than the central bank’s interest rate decision, the below macroeconomic data will set the global stock market direction
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 13 June 2022 | GDP number April | GB |
| 13 June 2022 | Industrial Production April | GB |
| 14 June 2022 | Industrial Production April | Japan |
| 14 June 2022 | Unemployment rate April | GB |
| 14 June 2022 | PPI MoM May | US |
| 15 June 2022 | Industrial Production April | China |
| 15 June 2022 | Retail Sales | China |
| 15 June 2022 | Unemployment rate April | China |
| 15 June 2022 | Retail Sales May | US |
| 15 June 2022 | Exp & Import data May | US |
| 15 June 2022 | Fed’s Interest rate Decision | US |
| 15 June 2022 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp May | Japan |
| 16 June 2022 | BoE Interest rate decision | GB |
| 16 June 2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 17 June 2022 | BoJ interest rate decision | Japan |
| 17 June 2022 | Industrial Production May | US |
Crude Oil Price
The crude oil prices touched a weekly high on Wednesday. The Brent crude hit $124.38/barrel, its highest since a 13-year high of $130/barrel on March 9 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The recent surge in crude price is due to the increasing demand from China after covid restrictions were lifted in its two major cities.
However, in the last two days, there was a cooldown in crude price. The Brent crude fell by more than $2 dollars due to reimposed of covid-19 restrictions in China on Thursday. The oil prices further skidded on Friday as US inflation was reported at more than 40-year highs. But still, Brent crude prices closed above $120 per barrel and registered a weekly gain of 1.91 percent. The further cooldown in Crude Oil prices can be positive for the market in the next week.
Indian Rupee against Dollar
Indian rupee hits a record low of 77.8/dollar, as foreign investors pull out money from the emerging markets. The rupee closed at a fresh low for a second consecutive day on Friday after it settled at 77.77 per dollar before going to 77.81 per dollar in intraday deals, as risk-averse investors continue to pull out from emerging markets due to the rise in crude oil prices.
The weakness in the Indian rupee is to continue further due to consistent FII outflow, elevated oil prices, and upward inflationary pressure. However, the buy/sell swap by the RBI and monetary policy tightening somewhat controls the depreciation of the Indian rupee. The further weakness in the Indian rupee can be negative for the Indian stock market.
Nifty & Bank Nifty Trend and Prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16500 to 15700 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Negative.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 35600 to 33000. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Negative.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were sellers in the Indian equity markets whereas Domestic Investors were the buyers during the week. FIIs sold Rs 12662.47 crore while DIIs bought Rs 9611.44 crore during the week ended June 3, 2022.
This is the 9th month, the foreign investors are selling in the Indian equity markets, so far they have sold approximately Rs 2.5 lakh crores. In the month of June, they have sold more than Rs 18K crore worth of stocks. The market experts feel that the intensive selling by the FIIs will continue in the near term, and it can be negative for the markets
According to Ramdeo Agarwal’s interview with CNBC TV18, FIIs are selling in the Indian equity markets as they are getting a huge premium over their emerging market peers because the rest of the portfolio of foreigners has underperformed. If Indian markets start underperforming other emerging markets, going ahead could turn the sentiments of foreign investors.
Monsoon Updates
The monsoon in Kerala recorded slow and weak in the first 10 days since it arrived. According to the IMD, the conditions will become favorable for further advancement of the monsoon over parts of Maharashtra, Andhra, and more parts of the west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal in the coming week.
As the monsoon is getting slightly delayed in India and running in a weak phase, this can be a potential cause of concern for farmers who are waiting to sow their crops. A delay in the monsoon can further increase the inflationary pressure. Traders need to closely monitor the monsoon-related news in the coming week, as the progress of a good monsoon can improve the market sentiments.
Covid-19 & Restrictions
On Saturday, India reported a total of 8329 new Covid-19 cases with 10 death, in the last 24 hours. The total active cases now rose to above 40K, while a daily positivity rate of 2.41 percent was observed on Friday. So far there are no covid-related restrictions imposed in India, traders need to monitor closely the recent surges of covid inflations as there is a fear of the 4th wave.
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