Stock Market Prediction Next Week (16- 20 Jan 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (16- 20 Jan 2023): Indian stock market indices logged a first weekly gain in 2023, as they closed lower for the first week of the year. The positive economic data and optimistic Q3 earnings on Thursday supported the domestic markets to close higher last week. However, the upside was limited due to volatile global markets and persistent selling pressure from foreign investors.
In the coming week, WPI inflation, Q3 earnings, and global cues will remain focused. On the global front, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, China’s GDP growth, and the US retail sales will set the global market direction. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (16-20 Jan 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
The Nifty index has been maintaining the crucial support zone of 17770-17800 levels for quite some time and indicated a pullback in the second half on Friday. The index was about to touch the 18000 zone during the intraday session to improve the bias to some extent.
The key frontline stocks will announce their Q3 earnings during the week, high fluctuation and volatility are expected and a decisive breach above the 18250 zone can trigger fresh upside movement in the coming days. Nifty could trade in a weekly range of 17600- 18300 levels.
Bank Nifty index also witnessed a decent pullback from near the crucial support zone of 41700 levels and rose to 42450 levels. A further decisive move above the 42700 zone can trigger a fresh upward move for the banking index. Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 41300 -43500 level for the week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Q3 Earnings
The third quarter (Q3FY23) earning season just began with the IT stocks last week. The top-performing sector last week was IT, as investors bet on beaten-down IT stocks after the release of quarterly earnings. The HDFC bank announced its Q3 earnings on Saturday. The private bank reported a net profit of Rs 12698 crore and beat market estimates, an increase of 18.5 percent over the quarter that ended December 31, 2022. The domestic market will first react to the HDFC bank quarterly results on Monday.
Next week there are ten Nifty 50 companies that will announce their quarterly earnings. The schedule for the quarterly earnings for next week is given below.
| Q3FY23 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 18 Jan 2023 | IndusInd Bank |
| 19 Jan 2023 | Asian Paints |
| 19 Jan 2023 | HUL |
| 20 Jan 2023 | HDFC Life |
| 20 Jan 2023 | JSW Steel |
| 20 Jan 2023 | Reliance |
| 21 Jan 2023 | ICICI Bank |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Kotak Bank |
| 21 Jan 2023 | SBI Life |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Ultratech Cement |
Macroeconomic data
The foreign exchange reserve has declined by $1.268 billion to $561.583 billion for the week ended 6 January, according to the RBI data showed on Friday. After cooling CPI inflation in the last week, investors will have a close eye on WPI numbers on Monday followed by the balance of trade data for the month of December and Foreign exchange reserves later during the week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week, the global stock market played a vital role in influencing the domestic markets. The optimistic economic data from US and Europe, and better-than-expected quarterly earnings from the U.S. supported the markets to trade higher last week.
Next week will be a truncated one for the U.S. stock markets due to a holiday on Monday. However, it will be a busy week for the traders as some important data from the U.S. are expected by traders like Quarterly earnings, Retail Sales, PPI numbers, and House starts.
Bank of Japan policy meeting can be a crucial one, after the record high inflation in Japan, traders are again expecting a tweak from the BoJ policy, like in December. The other key global economic data that may impact the global stock market prediction are given below:
Global Macroeconomic data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 16 January 2023 | PPI Dec | Japan |
| 16 January 2023 | House Price Index Dec | China |
| 17 January 2023 | Industrial Production Dec | China |
| 17 January 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q4 | China |
| 17 January 2023 | Unemployment Rate Dec | China |
| 17 January 2023 | Retail Sales Dec | China |
| 17 January 2023 | Unemployment Rate Nov | GB |
| 17 January 2023 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | EA |
| 18 January 2023 | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | Japan |
| 18 January 2023 | Industrial Production Nov | Japan |
| 18 January 2023 | Inflation rate Dec | GB |
| 18 January 2023 | PPI Dec | GB |
| 18 January 2023 | Inflation rate Dec | EA |
| 18 January 2023 | PPI Dec | US |
| 18 January 2023 | Retail Sales Dec | US |
| 18 January 2023 | Industrial Production Dec | US |
| 19 January 2023 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp | Japan |
| 19 January 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 20 January 2023 | Inflation Rate Dec | Japan |
| 20 January 2023 | Gfk Consumer Confidence | GB |
| 20 January 2023 | Loan Prime rate 1 yr, 5 yrs | China |
| 20 January 2023 | Retail Sales Dec | GB |
| 20 January 2023 | Existing Home Sales Dec | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices gained more than a dollar per barrel on Friday and registered their biggest weekly gains since October. This is mainly due to a drop in the U.S. dollar and growing demand from China. Both the oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI gained more than 8% during the week.
On Friday, Brent crude settled at $85.28 per barrel. As long as the crude is trading below $ 95 per barrel Indian markets may not react, above this level, we may see a negative reaction in the market, as India is the second largest crude oil importer in the world. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell in the Indian equity markets during the week. Foreign investors have offloaded Rs 9605.64 crore worth of shares while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers and they bought Rs 10042.08 crore in the cash segment for the week that ended on 6 Jan 2023.
FIIs have net sold Indian shares worth over Rs 21000 crore in 16 straight sessions, this is their longest and heaviest selling spree since June 2022. While DIIs have cheered the markets by investing over 19000 crores in the same period.
The reason for FIIs selling may be due to a rise in U.S. long-term bond yield, redemption pressure or perhaps finding China more attractive. As inflation is cooling now, interest rate hikes will ease in the U.S., and in turn bond yield is likely to fall, so we may FII’s coming back again in the Indian markets.
Conclusion:
Indian stock markets snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday. The sentiments improved after positive economic data and optimistic Q3 earnings that were released on Thursday. The US and European markets also closed on a positive note on Friday due to better earnings and positive economic data.
We feel the positive trend will continue both in global and domestic markets on Monday. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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