Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25- 29 Sept 2023)
,
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25- 29 Sept 2023): The Indian stock market ended lower for the week that ended on 22nd September 2023. The domestic markets snapped a three-week gaining streak on the back of weak global cues, rising crude oil prices, FII outflow, and hectic selling pressure in heavyweight HDFC bank stock.
In the coming week, global cues will set the market direction, while monthly F&O expiry will create some volatility in the markets. The macroeconomic data from both domestic and global, crude oil prices, FIIs, and DIIs activity will be closely monitored. The other key factors likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25-29 Sept 2023)
Monthly F&O Expiry: Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
The Nifty index after the previous session’s sharp fall witnessed further losses and breached below the 19700 zone decisively and touched the intraday low of the 19660 zone. Being a monthly F&O expiry week, Nifty could trade volatile and has immediate support of 19600 levels.
The sentiment maintained cautious and bias weakening with continued profit booking witnessed mainly in Realty, Metal, and Energy stocks. Nifty breaking the 19600 level could be seen next support level at the 19200 level. On a weekly, the Nifty index could trade in a range of 19200 to 20000.
The Bank Nifty index also slipped further on Friday and touched the 44500 level during the intraday session, later closing near the 44600 level with a high-profit booking seen in HDFC bank.
The Bank Nifty has strong support near the 44500 level, breaking this zone, we have the next crucial support at the 43600 level. On a weekly basis, Bank Nifty index could trade in a range of 43500 to 45500
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
According to an RBI report, India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $867 million to $593.037 billion for the week ending September 15. In the coming week, the infrastructure output data is scheduled for 29 September Friday. The other key macroeconomic data that are expected in the coming week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 29 September 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserves |
| 29 September 2023 | Government budget value Aug |
| 29 September 2023 | Infrastructure Output Aug |
| 29 September 2023 | Current Account Q2 |
| 29 September 2023 | External Debt Q2 |
Inclusion of Government Bonds into JP Morgan Emerging Market Index
The news of the inclusion of government bonds or securities into JP Morgan’s benchmark emerging market index from June 2024 will have little direct impact on the equity markets. The equity markets will benefit from the positive sentiments of the news, while it will indirectly support the markets by appreciating the Indian Rupee and will bring down the borrowing costs for the government.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week the global stock markets ended sharply lower, as the central banks mostly remained hawkish despite pausing the interest rates hikes. The Federal Reserve signaled one more rate hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.
The Bank Of England and Swiss National Bank also paused the interest rate hike while Sweeden’s Riksbank hiked 25 bps interest rate. All the central banks indicated the interest rate will remain elevated for a long period and this dented the market sentiments. You can also read last week’s global stock market analysis here.
In the coming week, updates on US new and existing home sales for August, Q2 GDP growth, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Fed Chair Powell’s speech will remain in the focus. Industrial profits from China, the UK’s GDP growth, and Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation data will also impact the global market sentiments next week.
The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global market stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 26 September 2023 | House Price Index July | US |
| 26 September 2023 | CB Consumer Confidence Sept | US |
| 26 September 2023 | New Home Sales Aug | US |
| 27 September 2023 | BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes | Japan |
| 27 September 2023 | Industrial Profits Aug | China |
| 27 September 2023 | Durables Good Order Aug | US |
| 28 September 2023 | Economic/Industrial/Services Sentiments Sept | EA |
| 28 September 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 | US |
| 28 September 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 28 September 2023 | Pending Home Sales Aug | US |
| 28 September 2023 | Current Account Q2 | China |
| 28 September 2023 | Fed Chair Powell’s Speech | US |
| 29 September 2023 | Unemployment rate Aug | Japan |
| 29 September 2023 | Tokyo CPI and Core CPI Sept | Japan |
| 29 September 2023 | Retail Sales Aug | Japan |
| 29 September 2023 | Industrial Production Aug | Japan |
| 29 September 2023 | Consumer Confidence | Japan |
| 29 September 2023 | Current Account Q2 | GB |
| 29 September 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 | GB |
| 29 September 2023 | BoE Consumer Credit | GB |
| 29 September 2023 | Inflation and Core Inflation Flash Sept | EA |
| 29 September 2023 | Core PCE Price Index Aug | US |
| 29 September 2023 | Personal Spending and Income Aug | US |
| 29 September 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Sept | US |
US Government Shutdown
Almost every week there seem to a new warnings of a potential crisis that changes traders’ investment decisions or keeps them worried about their existing portfolios. This week is the US government shutdown, now the concern is that if politicians cannot pass various bills before September 30, there will be a government shutdown.
According to Goldman Sachs analyst’s prediction in every week of shutdown, there will be a 0.15% drop in growth. It will impact economic growth and temporary instability in the bond prices. Though the US government shutdowns have historically had minimal negative impact on the US stock market, it is likely to create some volatility in the US markets.
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices remained steady on Friday but fell consecutively for three sessions during the week on profit-taking. Investors weighed supply concerns from the recent news of Russia’s fuel export ban against demand concerns after Federal Resvers signaled another rate hike this year.
Investors are expecting a slight slowdown in crude oil demand in the coming month as refineries will go into maintenance and fear of higher interest rates will further pressurize the oil markets. On a weekly basis, the US-based WTI crude and London-based Brent both benchmarks fell 0.30 percent each, snapping a three-week winning streak.
Any major correction in crude oil prices will benefit the importing country like India. The correction in crude oil will impact positively the domestic markets, as India is the third-largest oil-importing country in the world.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity cash markets last week. They were net sellers in all four trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 8681.3 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 1938.94 crore during the week.
So far Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were the net sellers in September month, they offloaded shares worth about Rs 18261 crore. FIIs are likely to continue their selling spree in the coming week as US- -Treasury bond yields remain multiyear high.
FII selling spree likely to impact the domestic markets. Traders should keep a close eye on FIIs and DIIs data in the coming week, as FII’s aggressive selling in the Indian equity cash markets will further hit the market sentiments.
Conclusion
On Friday, Indian stock markets could not hold their intraday gains and slipped into the red territory for the fourth consecutive day. The global markets also mostly ended in the red on Friday. Technically, Indian stock market indicators are not looking positive right now.
However, as the domestic stock markets are in an oversold zone, we can expect a relief rally in the coming week. The monthly F&O expiry will trigger volatility in the local markets markets, so traders should remain cautious and trade with strict stop loss. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
If you like the post “Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25 – 29 Sept 2023)” please share it with the others.
You may also like to read, Best Options Trading Books in India – Must Read
Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 25 Sept 2023
Happy Investing!!
Editor’s Desk
