Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11-15 Sept 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11-15 Sept 2023): Indian stock markets closed on a strong note on Friday, gaining for the second consecutive week. On a weekly basis, Sensex and Nifty advanced 1.85 percent and 1.98 percent respectively, probably the best week in the past two months.
The strong economic data supported the domestic markets despite weakness in global markets, persistent selling by FIIs, and a spike in crude oil prices.
In the coming week, domestic as well as global macroeconomic data will remain the focus. The inflation rate in India and the US, the ECB interest rate decision, and China’s Industrial Production and Retail sales will set the market direction next week.
The Crude oil price and FII flow will also dictate trends in the bourses in the coming week. The other key factors likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
The Nifty index extended gains as the sentiments improved and ended above the 19800 level. The Nifty index registered its highest weekly closing, turning up the weekly trend after 5 weeks and strengthening the overall trend with further upward movements.
The index is expected to march towards the 20000 zone in the coming sessions with 19600 maintained as the near-term support level. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in a range of 19500- 20200 levels.
Bank Nifty index witnessed a strong gain, it breached the crucial and significant zone of 45000 levels and improved the trend. The index also turned up the weekly trend after 5 weeks, thereby, establishing some conviction for furthermore gains in the coming days.
Investors can expect for next upside targets of 46200-46500 levels in the Bank Nifty index. On a weekly basis, Bank Nifty index could trade in a range of 44200-46500
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
The August inflation data is set to be released on Tuesday, September 12 along with July month’s Industrial Production (IIP) reading. After a sharp rise in retail inflation at 7.44% in July, investors are eagerly waiting for the August inflation rate.
According to Reuter’s poll of 45 economists, India’s retail inflation is likely to ease around 7% in August due to a decline in vegetable and food prices but would remain higher above RBI’s upper band of 4-6.
On the same day, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth for July will also be released. According to the informist poll of 17 economists, it is likely to have risen to 5% on year in July, from a three-month low of 3.7% reported in June. This is mainly because of the statistical effect of a low base. The IIP grew at 2.2% in July 2022.
Indian stock market will react to both the data on the next day i.e. on Wednesday, but markets are likely to remain cautious on Tuesday ahead of the CPI and IIP data. The schedule for the key macroeconomic data for the next week is given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 September 2023 | Manufacturing Production-July |
| 12 September 2023 | Industrial Production (IIP)- July |
| 12 September 2023 | CPI Inflation Rate Aug |
| 14 September 2023 | WPI inflation- Aug |
| 15 September 2023 | Balance of Trade- Export & Import |
| 15 September 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets mostly closed lower for the week ended 8 September. The strong economic data from the US fueled fear among investors that the Federal Reserve would keep the elevated interest rate for a longer period.
Whereas, the weak economic data from China raised concerns about the country’s economic slowdown and the impact on global demand. The US heavyweight tech stock Apple fell sharply last week, as the Chinese government banned the iPhone for central government officials and state-owned company staff.
In the coming week, the global markets will remain cautious ahead of the US retail inflation reading, which is due on Wednesday, September 13. The headline inflation could come slightly higher compared to the last month due to a surge in gasoline prices while Core inflation could remain subdued in August.
Along with this August Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiments for September will also remain in focus. In addition to this, Apple will remain focused next week as in its Annual fall event the company is expected to unveil its latest product, including iPhone 15.
The ECB’s interest rate decision and China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales data are likely to influence the global markets next week. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 11 September 2023 | Consumer Inflation Expectation-Aug | US |
| 12 September 2023 | Unemployment Rate- July | GB |
| 12 September 2023 | Employment Change June | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Reuters Tankan Index Sept | Japan |
| 13 September 2023 | PPI YoY/MoM- Aug | Japan |
| 13 September 2023 | GDP MoM July & 3 Month Avg | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Goods Trade Balance- July | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Industrial Production-July | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Manufacturing Production-July | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Balance of Trade July | GB |
| 13 September 2023 | Industrial Production-July | EA |
| 13 September 2023 | Core Inflation Aug | US |
| 13 September 2023 | CPI Inflation Rate Aug | US |
| 14 September 2023 | RICS Housing Price Balance Aug | GB |
| 14 September 2023 | Machinery Order July | Japan |
| 14 September 2023 | Industrial Production-July | Japan |
| 14 September 2023 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 14 September 2023 | PPI-AUG | US |
| 14 September 2023 | Retail Sales Aug | US |
| 14 September 2023 | Core PPI Aug | US |
| 14 September 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 15 September 2023 | House Price Index- Aug | China |
| 15 September 2023 | Industrial Production Aug | China |
| 15 September 2023 | Retail Sales Aug | China |
| 15 September 2023 | Unemployment Rate Aug | China |
| 15 September 2023 | Balance of Trade July | EA |
| 15 September 2023 | Labor Cost & Wage growth Q2 | EA |
| 15 September 2023 | Export & Import Prices Aug | US |
| 15 September 2023 | Industrial Production Aug | US |
| 15 September 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments-Sept | US |
| 15 September 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation -Sept | US |
| 15 September 2023 | Michigan Consumer Expectation -Sept | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices are at a nine-month high due to concern about tight supply. The prices of both oil benchmarks are rising after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended the production cut till the end of this year. Additionally, the shrink in US crude inventories also helped the oil benchmarks to trade at the highest level of the current year.
However, the fear of one more US interest rate hike in the current year, high dollar prices, and a slowdown in the Chinese economy capped the crude oil prices at a higher level. Both the oil benchmarks WTI and Brent crude rose around 2% during the week.
Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the coming week, as higher crude oil prices can dampen the global stock market sentiments.
FII & DIIs Flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets. They were net sellers in all five trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 9321.41 crore during the week. The domestic markets gained all the trading sessions last week even after FIIs sold.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 4572.14 crore, which was around 50% of what the FIIs sold. Traders should keep a close eye on FIIs and DIIs data in the coming week, as FIIs return can further add fuel to the existing positive momentum.
Conclusion:
Friday’s gain in the domestic markets confirmed that the market direction has changed and the Nifty is now heading towards 20000 levels. The US and European markets also ended on a positive note last Friday after having a tough week before that.
In the upcoming week, the domestic markets will likely keep going up, but there might be some ups and downs. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 11 Sept 2023
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