Stock Market Prediction: What to Expect Next Week (March 25th – 29th, 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25th to 29th March 2024): Indian stock market indices reversed their previous week’s losses and ended with minor gains. The Sensex and Nifty gained four out of five trading sessions during the week. The Sensex was up 188.51 points or 0.26% and closed at 72831.94, while Nifty added 73.4 points or 0.33% and settled at 22096.75. The sentiments were improved in the latter half of the week due to positive global cues as the global central bank’s tone was dovish in cutting interest rates soon.
The upcoming week will be truncated, as Indian stock markets will remain shut on Monday, 25th March due to the Holi Celebration and Friday, 29th March on account of Good Friday. The market volatility is expected to zoom as traders will roll over their March series F&O contracts to the April series ahead of the monthly F&O expiry.
The global market sentiments will play a crucial role in setting the market directions. The macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, FIIs, and DII activity will also dictate the trend on the bourses next week. The other key factors that are likely to influence the domestic stock markets including stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week ( 25 – 29 March 2024)
Nifty & Bank Nifty for Monthly F&O Expiry
On Friday, the Nifty index once again witnessed taking its support near the significant 50 EMA zone of 21870 levels. It recovered strongly and erased the losses almost to touch the 22200 zone during the intraday session on Friday.
The Nifty maintaining above the 22000 level is important and is necessary to carry on a further upward move thereafter. If it sustains above the current level, it is anticipated to retest the previous week’s level of the 22525 zone in the coming days.
The Bank Nifty index is gradually moving ahead maintaining the support of a significant 50 EMA of the 46600 zone. The index would need a decisive breach above 47300 levels, to overall improve the bias. The Bank Nifty would trade in a range of 45600 to 48000 during the upcoming week.
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Domestic Economic Data
The latest monthly economic review for February 2024, released on Friday by the Finance Ministry noted that the Indian economic outlook remains bright for FY25. The report said that the economy will close on a strong note in the current fiscal due to stable inflation, a robust external account, and a progressive employment scenario.
According to the Reserve Bank of India data, the country’s foreign exchange reserve rose by $6.4 bn to $642.49 billion as of March 15. The upcoming holiday-shortened week will feature the scheduled macroeconomic data released below. The positive economic news and optimistic data will aid the market sentiments in the next week.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 28 March 2024 | Current Account Q4 |
| 28 March 2024 | External Debt Q4 |
| 29 March 2024 | Government Budget Value |
| 29 March 2024 | Infrastructure Output Feb |
| 29 March 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes concluded the week ending March 22 on a higher note. The US, Europe, Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea indexes ended higher, while China and Hong Kong ended in the red this week. The hope of an interest rate cut soon by the Central Bank of the US and the UK lifted the markets in the US and Europe.
Meanwhile, in Japan markets rallied as the yen weakened after the BoJ ended the negative interest rate. The sentiments were downbeat in China due to concerns about the ailing property sector despite a pick in industrial production and retail sales in the first two months of the current year.
You can also read – Global Stock Market Insights: Weekly Stock Market Overview (Mar 18-22)
In the upcoming week, the US, European, and some Asian markets will remain closed on Friday, 29 March on account of Good Friday. In the US, several Fed officials will deliver their speeches next week, which will create some volatility in the markets. The Q4 final GDP growth data from the US and UK will remain focused during the truncated week.
Next Friday’s PCE prices index will have less impact this time as the US markets will remain shut on Friday and secondly, traders will overlook the sticky inflation data. Traders will closely monitor China’s Industrial profits data scheduled for next week, following last week’s upbeat industrial production and retail sales data. Japan will announce Tokyo’s inflation and other macroeconomic data next week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 25 March 2024 | BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes | Japan |
| 25 March 2024 | US Fed Bostic Speech | US |
| 25 March 2024 | Chicago Fed National Activity Index Feb | US |
| 25 March 2024 | New Home Sales Feb | US |
| 25 March 2024 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index March | US |
| 26 March 2024 | Westpack Consumer Confidence Change March | AU |
| 26 March 2024 | Durable Goods Order Feb | US |
| 26 March 2024 | CB Consumer Confidence March | US |
| 26 March 2024 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index March | US |
| 27 March 2024 | Industrial Profits Feb | China |
| 27 March 2024 | Economic Sentiments March | EA |
| 28 March 2024 | BoJ Summary Opinions | Japan |
| 28 March 2024 | Housing Credit Feb | AU |
| 28 March 2024 | Retail Sales Feb | AU |
| 28 March 2024 | Current Account | GB |
| 28 March 2024 | GDP Growth Q4 Final | GB |
| 28 March 2024 | GDP Growth Q4 Final | US |
| 28 March 2024 | Corporate Profits Q4 | US |
| 28 March 2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 28 March 2024 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments | US |
| 28 March 2024 | Pending Home Sales | US |
| 29 March 2024 | Unemployment Rate Feb | Japan |
| 29 March 2024 | Tokyo CPI Inflation | Japan |
| 29 March 2024 | Industrial Production Feb | Japan |
| 29 March 2024 | Retail Sales Feb | Japan |
| 29 March 2024 | Housing Starts | Japan |
| 29 March 2024 | PCE Price Index | US |
| 29 March 2024 | Fed Chair Powell’s Speech | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil closed lower on Friday, wrapping up the week on a subdued tone. The sentiments were slightly downbeat as ceasefire talks between the Israel-Hamas suggested reduced supply disruptions in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks in Qatar regarding temporarily halting the violence in Gaza remained under close observation. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed optimism that a deal will be achieved.
In the week, the US-based WTI crude oil prices ended lower by 0.51% while the London-based Brent closed flat to positive. However, the tighter supply managed to keep the oil price elevated in the initial days of the last week.
The unexpected shrink in US crude inventories and OPEC+ members’ export cuts uplifted crude oil prices to a four-month high. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the coming week, lower crude oil prices will boost investor’s sentiments in the coming week.
FII & DIIs flow
In the last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 8365.53 crore in the Indian equity cash segment, turning them into net sellers. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 19351.62 crore during the week. FIIs were the net sellers in four out of five trading sessions during the week, while DIIs bought shares in five sessions.
Traders should keep a close eye on the FIIs and DIIs activity in the upcoming week, as the FII’s buying in Indian equity cash segments could support the domestic markets to hit a new high.
Conclusion
To summarise the stock market prediction for next week, Indian markets ended last week on a positive note. Presently, the sentiments from the global markets turned positive after the dovish central bank’s monetary policy meetings. The domestic markets will likely get support from their global peers but will remain volatile due to monthly F&O expiry.
Going ahead, we advise traders to exercise caution ahead of the March F&O expiry and trade with strict stop loss. Traders can follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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