Stock Market Prediction Next Week (19- 23 June 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (19- 23 June 2023): Indian stock markets ended the week with a significant gain. The market sentiments were upbeat due to positive global cues, strong economic data, and institutional buying. The upside remains capped due to the delay in the monsoon. On the global front, the major central banks announced their policy in line with expectations. However, the market upside was capped, as the tone from Fed and ECB was somewhat hawkish.
In the coming week, the global cues, FIIs inflow, progress in monsoon, and crude oil prices will set the market direction. The global markets are likely to see some volatility due to US Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (19- 23 June 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
On Friday, Nifty opened higher and carried on with the positive move, especially in the last hours to almost touch an All-Time High of 18887 levels with strong bias and sentiment maintained overall.
The Nifty index will have near-term support at the 18700 level, which would be crucial and a decisive breach above the 18900 zone and sustaining in the new territory would trigger further fresh upward movement for the next targets of 19200-19300 levels. On a weekly basis, the support in Nifty is seen at 18500 and resistance is at 19200
After a sharp fall in the previous session, the Bank Nifty index recovered significantly on Friday. A rally in both PSU and Pvt Banking stocks was seen on Friday. The Bank Nifty index touched the 44000 zone once again during the intraday session on Friday.
The Bank Nifty index needs a decisive breach above the crucial resistance barrier of the 44500 zone to anticipate a further upward movement. The support for the week is seen at 43000 levels while the resistance is seen at 45200 levels.
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Progress in Monsoon
The progress in the monsoon will be closely watched by the traders next week. Last week, on Thursday the Indian market reacted negatively after India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon was 50% below in June so far. Food prices going to shoot up in July if there is further delay in monsoon rains.
The possibility of 5% or lower inflation is only possible if we get sufficient monsoon and food prices do not rise in July and August. The delay to start the monsoon rains in India is a concern, as this will not only spike food inflation and will also impact GDP growth. The news related to the progress in monsoon rains, advancing in the other parts of the country could support the domestic equity markets next week, while a further delay in monsoon can see some selling pressure in the markets.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes closed higher and supported the domestic markets during the week. The coming week will be a truncated one for Wall Street, as the US markets will remain closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday. Next week, the US markets will focus mainly on Housing starts data, the two-day Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, and Flash PMI data for June.
China’s Prime Loan rate, BoE interest rate decision, and Japan & UK’s inflation readings are also likely to impact the global stock markets next week. The other key global macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction next week are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 20 June 2023 | Prime Loan Rate 1-5 yrs | China |
| 20 June 2023 | Industrial Production April | Japan |
| 20 June 2023 | Current Account April | EA |
| 20 June 2023 | Housing Starts May | US |
| 21 June 2023 | BoJ Monetary Policy meeting minutes | Japan |
| 21 June 2023 | Inflation Rate May | GB |
| 21 June 2023 | PPI May | GB |
| 21 June 2023 | Retail Price Index May | GB |
| 21 June 2023 | US Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony | US |
| 22 June 2023 | BoE interest rate decision | GB |
| 22 June 2023 | Current Account Q1 | US |
| 22 June 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 22 June 2023 | US Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony | US |
| 22 June 2023 | Existing Home Sales | US |
| 23 June 2023 | Gfk Consumer Confidence June | GB |
| 23 June 2023 | Inflation Rate May | Japan |
| 23 June 2023 | Core Inflation May | Japan |
| 23 June 2023 | Jibun Bank PMI Flash June | Japan |
| 23 June 2023 | Retail Sales May | GB |
| 23 June 2023 | HCOB PMI Flash June | EA |
| 23 June 2023 | S&P Global PMI Flash June | US |
| 23 June 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS PMI Flash June | GB |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices posted their first weekly gain after declining three weeks, on the hopes that demand will increase from China, while supply has already cut by Saudi Arabia from the month of July. According to the market expert, China’s refineries throughput rose in May, and it will keep climbing in the second half, as several measures were taken by the Chinese government for a speedy recovery of the economy.
Both the oil benchmarks registered weekly gains, Brent crude was up by 2.4% during the week, while WTI crude posted a weekly gain of 2.3%.
FII & DIIs flow
Both the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying spree during the week. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 6645.99 crore while DIIs purchased Rs 1319.21 crore shares for the week.
FIIs and DIIs both were buyers in the month of June in the Indian equity markets. In June so far, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 6886.77 crore while DII’s net purchase was Rs 4329.75 crore. Traders should follow FIIs and DIIs trading activity closely in the next week to gauge the market direction.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market may remain sideways in the coming week, as there are no important events or economic data lined up on the domestic front for the next week. Traders need to closely monitor global cues, particularly the US Fed chair Powell’s testimony in the coming week, as we could see some volatility after the testimony is done. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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