Stock Market Prediction Next Week (8 – 12 April 2024)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (8 – 12 April 2024): Indian stock market indexes closed higher for the third consecutive week. In the week ended, 5th April Sensex gained 596.87 points or 0.81% and closed at 74248.22, while Nifty was up by 186.8 points or 0.84% and settled at 22513.70. Sensex and Nifty hit a fresh record high during the week.
The market sentiments were upbeat due to strong PMI manufacturing and services activity data and in-line expectations of RBI monetary policy. However, the market upside remained capped due to weak global cues and institutional selling.
The upcoming week will be truncated, as NSE and BSE will remain shut on Thursday, 11 April 2024, on account of Eid. Next week the market will focus on inflation data, as India, China, and the US will release March inflation data. On Friday, investors will closely watch the country’s Index of Industrial Production data.
On the global front, the ECB‘s interest rate decision, FOMC minutes, and IMF’s world economic outlook will influence the domestic markets. The other macroeconomic data from specific countries, crude oil prices, FIIs, and DII activity will also dictate the trend on the bourses in the upcoming week. The other key factors, that are likely to influence the domestic stock markets including stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week ( 8 – 12 April 2024)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
The Nifty index was trading within a tight range between 22300 and 22550 during this week. The bias remained positive and sentiment improved to some extent to anticipate further rise in the coming days.
The Nifty index would need to decisively breach above the 22550 zone to establish conviction for further upward movement, for the targets of 22800 and 23200 levels in the coming days. Next week, Nifty will have support at 22100 and resistance at 22900 levels.
The Bank Nifty index outperformed the Nifty index during the week breaching above the previous peak zone of 48160 levels, The Bank Nifty index is almost on the verge of retesting its all-time high of 48636 levels in the coming days.
Once a confirmation is established, the index would have the next target of 49800 levels with most of the frontline banking stocks looking well set for further rally. Next week, the Bank Nifty index will have support at 47200 and resistance at 49800 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
On Friday, post-market hours data showed, that India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at a record high of $645.58 billion, in the week ended March 29, surpassing its previous high of $642.49. A separate, bi-monthly survey report from RBI showed that India’s consumer confidence surged to its highest level since mid-2019. The above strong economic data will positively impact the markets on Monday.
In the coming week, markets will have CPI inflation data for March on Friday along with the Industrial production and manufacturing production data on the same day. According to the CMIE report, the country’s retail inflation will likely have eased to around 5% in March 2024, compared to 5.1% in February.
The February month’s core sectors growth increased to 6.7% reversing its declining trends seen in December and January. The core sector normally acts as a lead indicator for IIP, due to its 40.27% weightage in the IIP basket. Indian IIP growth was recorded at 3.8% in January and experts now anticipated growth of 4 to 5%, in February. While both inflation and IIP data are slated to be released after market hours on Friday, the expectations of ease in inflation and growth in IIP, will likely to boost the market sentiments next week.
Q4 Earnings
The quarterly earnings season will start, next week with TCS Q4 results on Friday, 12 April 2024. TCS will release its Q4 earnings on Friday at post-market hours. IT stocks will remain in focus ahead of the TCS Q4 earnings report.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes mostly ended the week in the red. The US stock markets closed lower as strong economic data released during the week faded June rate cut hopes. Several US Fed officials made hawkish comments, suggesting the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates as inflation remains high and the economy is resilient. This pushed the Treasury yields higher and dented the sentiments.
European stock markets retreated from a record high and closed in the red. The sentiments were weak due to concern about rising crude oil prices and the US Fed officials sounded hawkish. While in Asia Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined due to the weakness in the yen and following weak cues from US markets, while Shanghai and Hang Seng indexes gained following the positive economic data released in China.
You can also read – Global Stock Market Weekly Recap: Trends and Analysis (1-5 April 2024)
Next week, investors will closely monitor the inflation data, particularly from the US and China. In a recent statement, US Fed officials indicated not to cut interest rates this year, as inflation is picking up in the first two months of 2024. Consequently, the March inflation reading in the US will carry significant weightage, in shaping the Fed stance. Similarly, in China, where deflationary pressure persists and demands are low, the inflation reading for March will play a crucial role.
Other than inflation reading, the ECB’s interest rate decision, FOMC minutes, IMF world economic outlook report, and the UK’s GDP data will be crucial and influence the global market direction in the coming week. The crude oil price and the US dollar movement will play a crucial role in the upcoming week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 8th April 2024 | Current Account | Japan |
| 9th April 2024 | Fed Kashkari Speech | US |
| 9th April 2024 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor March | GB |
| 9th April 2024 | Westpack Consumer Confidence April | AU |
| 9th April 2024 | Consumer Confidence March | Japan |
| 9th April 2024 | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index April | US |
| 10th April 2024 | Bank Lending & PPI March | Japan |
| 10th April 2024 | CPI & Core Inflation March | US |
| 10th April 2024 | Fed Goolsbe Speech | US |
| 10th April 2024 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 11 April 2024 | Consumer Inflation Expectation April | AU |
| 11 April 2024 | CPI Inflation and PPI | China |
| 11 April 2024 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 11 April 2024 | PPI March | US |
| 11 April 2024 | Jobless Claims | US |
| 11 April 2024 | Fed Willams Speech | US |
| 11 April 2024 | IMF World Economic Outlook | |
| 11 April 2024 | Fed Collins Speech | US |
| 11 April 2024 | Fed Bistic Speech | US |
| 12 April 2024 | Trade Data Export and Import March | China |
| 12 April 2024 | Industrial Production Feb | Japan |
| 12 April 2024 | GDP Data | GB |
| 12 April 2024 | Industrial Production Feb | GB |
| 12 April 2024 | Goods Trade Balance | GB |
| 12 April 2024 | Balance of Trade Feb | GB |
| 12 April 2024 | Export & Import Price | US |
| 12 April 2024 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments | US |
Crude Oil Prices
After posting robust gains in the first quarter of 2024, crude oil prices posted strong gains in the first week of the second quarter. In the week ended April 5th, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices gained above 4% each. The demand for oil prices increased as geopolitical tension escalated in the Middle East, and traders bet on potential supply disruptions.
The improving economic activity and crude oil demand from China and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies maintain its current pace of production cuts also supported the oil prices to trade higher last week.
However, the upside remained capped as the strong US economic data released last week faded the hope of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserves in June. Traders should keep a close eye on the oil prices, as rising oil prices could dampen the market sentiments.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were turned net sellers in the week ended April 5th, they offloaded shares worth Rs 3835.75. crore in the Indian equity cash segment. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained flat, as net buying and selling were almost equal last week.
FIIs were net sellers in four, out of five trading sessions, while DIIs bought in three sessions last week. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs and DIIs activity in the upcoming week.
Conclusion
To summarise, the stock market prediction for the upcoming week suggests, a continuation of the positive momentum observed in Indian markets last week. The sentiments will likely remain positive in the global markets, during the initial days. However, caution is advised in the latter half of the week, as investors may remain cautious ahead of the economic data releases and quarterly earnings reports.
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