Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 Dec 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 Dec 2023): Indian stock market indexes ended the truncated week on a strong note, rising for the fifth consecutive week. The domestic markets gained, on the back of strong macroeconomic data, FII buying, and positive global cues. The equity benchmarks gained more than 2% amid volatility due to the November F&O expiry during the week.
In the coming week, all eyes will be on RBI’s two-day MPC meeting scheduled on 6th to 8th December. The global and domestic macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, and FII activity will also remain in focus. On the global front, Japan’s Tokyo inflation, the US unemployment rate, GDP growth in Europe and Japan, and Services PMI from various countries will influence the markets next week.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (4- 8 Dec 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
Last week, the Nifty index surged, continuing the uptrend and creating another record of breaching above the previous high of 20222 levels and entering a new territory by touching the new record high of 20291 levels.
The Nifty index needs to sustain above the 20250 zone in the coming session to confirm the breakout and anticipate for further rise in the coming days. Weekly basis, the Nifty index could trade in a range of 19800 to 20700.
Bank Nifty also witnessed a pullback and moved above the 44800 level to maintain the bias intact and to move further ahead. The Bank Nifty index needs a decisive close above 45000 to establish a confirmation for further rise in the coming days. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 43400–46200 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in November jumped 15% YoY to Rs 1.68 lakh crore, according to the data showed by the Ministry of Finance on Friday post markets. The GST collection was 2% lower than Rs 1.72 lakh crore collected in October but came above 1.5 lakh crore for the 9th month in a row.
Separately, on Friday post-market data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that India’s services exports climbed 10.8% YoY to Rs 233611 crore in October, while the import fell 0.4% to Rs 1,12,180 crore. On Tuesday, the S&P Global will announce the country’s Services PMI data, and it is expected to remain robust. Indian stock markets will react positively to the economic data on Monday.
RBI Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled from 6th to 8 December. The RBI is expected to keep the key interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the fifth meeting in a row on Dec 8, as worries on inflation are subsidized.
A group of 64 economists in a Reuters poll expected the central Bank of India to hold the repo rate at 6.5% in the Dec 6-8 meeting. Dhiraj Nim an economist at ANZ research said RBI will hold the rates and the rate cut is expected not before Q3 of 2024. Any indication about the rate cut in the RBI policy meeting will boost the market sentiments next week.
Election Results
On the political front, the outcome of Assembly election results will be closely monitored. The voting of all five states’ MP, Rajasthan, Telangana Chattisgarh, and Mizoram began on 7th November and ended on 30th November.
The counting of the voting or the poll results will be declared on December 3. The poll of these five states is being considered as the semi-final before the 2024 general election. So the result of this Assembly Election can influence the market on Monday.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes mostly ended higher during the week. Investors cheered as the cooling inflation data from the US and Europe fueled the hope of interest rate cuts from the next year. The acknowledgment of Federal Reserve officials that the policy is in the right place to curb inflation improved the market sentiments last week, despite Chairman Powell’s warning that the talks of interest rate cutting are “premature”.
Also read, Global Stock Market Updates: Key Takeaways from Nov 27 to Dec 1, 2023
The continuous fall in US Treasury yields and crude oil prices boosted the stock market sentiments. The stronger-than-expected US GDP data in the third quarter suggests that the US economy may avoid recession in the near term. The improved manufacturing activity in Europe and China also supported the global markets in the last trading session.
Next week, in the US, job markets will remain focused, as the JOLTS job opening, Non-farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate of November will remain in the spotlight. The ISM Services PMI data and the Michigan consumer sentiments and expectations will be announced during the week.
The Tokyo inflation and Q3 GDP data from Japan and Europe will be closely monitored next week. The Services PMI data from China and other several countries will announced on Tuesday. The other global macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the Global stock market outlook are given below:
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 4 December 2023 | Factory Order Oct | US |
| 5 December 2023 | Tokyo CPI & Core CPI Nov | Japan |
| 5 December 2023 | Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Nov | Japan |
| 5 December 2023 | Ciaxin Services & Composite PMI Nov | China |
| 5 December 2023 | HCOB Services & Composite PMI Nov | EA |
| 5 December 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Services & Comp. PMI Nov | GB |
| 5 December 2023 | PPI OCT | EA |
| 5 December 2023 | S&PGlobal Services & Composite PMI Nov | US |
| 5 December 2023 | ISM Services PMI Nov | US |
| 5 December 2023 | JOLTS Job Opening Oct | US |
| 5 December 2023 | ISM Services Employment Nov | US |
| 5 December 2023 | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Dec | US |
| 6 December 2023 | Reuters Tankan Index Dec | Japan |
| 6 December 2023 | Retail Sales Oct | EA |
| 6 December 2023 | ADP Employment Change Nov | US |
| 6 December 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp& Imp Oct | US |
| 7 December 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp& Imp Nov | China |
| 7 December 2023 | Halifax Housing Price Nov | GB |
| 7 December 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q3 | EA |
| 7 December 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 8 December 2023 | Current Account | Japan |
| 8 December 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q3 | Japan |
| 8 December 2023 | Non-Farm Payroll Nov | US |
| 8 December 2023 | Unemployment Rate Nov | US |
| 8 December 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Dec | US |
| 8 December 2023 | Michigan Consumer Expectation Dec | US |
| 8 December 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation Dec | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices fell for the sixth consecutive week, as voluntary output cuts decided in the OPEC+ meeting from the major oil producers fell short of expectations. Both the oil benchmarks, WTI crude, and Brent Crude fell 1.95% and 1.99% respectively during the week. Traders continued to worry about the oversupply front on crude oil.
Seven OPEC+ countries announced plans for additional voluntary production cuts in the first quarter of 2024, the sum of the total additional cut is a little under 900Mbbls/d and will be seen in 1Q24. The Market sentiments dampened and crude oil fell last week, as it had already priced in the larger cuts.
According to Goldman Sachs, the recent upside surprise in the global crude supplies could weigh on oil prices. Traders need to closely follow the crude prices in the week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in equity cash segments, they purchased shares worth Rs 10593.19 crore during the week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) also continued their buying spree, and they also bought shares worth Rs 4353.55 crore during the week.
As mentioned earlier, a surge in buying by FIIs has the potential to propel Nifty to new highs. This materialized when FIIs turned buyers last week in the equity cash segment. If this trend persists then we could see a new high in the coming days.
FIIs are attracted to Indian equity markets and started investing as US Treasury yields declined sharply. In addition to this, the release of resilient Indian economic data has contributed to their confidence in the market. Traders should keep a close eye on FII and DII activity in the coming week.
Conclusion
Indian stock market rallied and the key indices ended on a high note last Friday, with Nifty closed at a record high. Bolstered by favorable global sentiments, we expect the positive momentum will continue in the markets throughout the upcoming week. Stay tuned to our insightful Stock Market Prediction for next week. Investors can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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