Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2- 6 May 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2- 6 May 2022): Indian stock market indexes closed marginally lower for the week ended 29 April. Friday’s sharp selling in the last hour wipes out the weekly gains and benchmark indices closed slightly lower. The reason for the markets fall were weak global cues, FIIs outflow, diverting funds for applying LIC IPO, and mixed corporate earnings.
In the coming truncated week, there are some big events lined up which will set the market direction. The key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2 – 6 May 2022)
Quarterly Earnings
So far there are 18 Nifty 50 companies that already have announced their quarterly results. Indian markets have punished some heavyweight stocks that missed the street estimates in the last two weeks.
In the coming week, there are 8 Nifty 50 companies that will announce their Q4 earnings. These corporate earnings are expected to dominate the local markets in the coming week.
| Q4 FY22 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 2 May 2022 | Britannia |
| 2 May 2022 | HDFC |
| 3 May 2022 | Hero Motorcorp |
| 3 May 2022 | Tata Steel |
| 3 May 2022 | Titan |
| 4 May 2022 | Kotak Bank |
| 4 May 2022 | Tata Consumer |
| 6 May 2022 | Reliance |
FOMC meeting outcome
The global market participants will be keenly watching the US Fed meeting outcome and commentary which will come on May 4. Traders are expecting a 50 bps hike and it is already discounted at the current market levels. Any changes higher or lower than the expectations, the global markets will react sharply on either side.
Domestic macroeconomic data
India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection data are expected in the coming week. This time it is anticipated that the GST collection will touch a new high. Other than GST data, the PMI numbers, Export, and Import data for the month of April will give us a direction of current economic growth. Indian markets will react positively if data comes as per expectation.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 2 May 2022 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI- April |
| 2 May 2022 | Exp/Imp – Balance of Trade-April |
| 5 May 2022 | S&P Global Service PMI- April |
| 6 May 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
| 6 May 2022 | Deposit & Loan growth |
LIC IPO
The much-awaited public issue, LIC IPO is set to open on 4 May and will close on 9 May. The LIC IPO is expected to get a good response from both retail as well as institutional investors. Investors are expected to divert their existing shareholdings toward the public issue. We have already seen a sharp selloff last Friday despite positive global markets, more selling pressure can be seen in the coming week too from both retail as well as institutions. You can open a lifetime Free Demat AMC account online with a reputed broker in 30 mins here
Auto Sales Number
Auto sales numbers for April are expected next week, companies are expected to make a good start in FY23, as per analyst expectations a good sales growth can be witnessed in April 2022. This is due to the low base of last year and an increase in demand. A rebound in demand can be seen in the two-wheeler segment due to the wedding season and improvement in rural sentiments on the back of rabi crop harvesting.
The three-wheeler demand has also been improved due to the reopening of schools and offices. While passenger vehicle demand has also increased in the last month but supply chain constraints impacted the sales. Overall, a good sales growth can be seen in April’s auto sales.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes closed lower for the week ended 29 April. The reason for the market fall was fear of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, the lockdown of important cities in China, high inflation, geopolitical tension, and mixed quarterly earnings by the corporate.
In the coming week, other than the FOMC meeting outcome the global markets will remain volatile due to PMI numbers, US farm payroll data, BoE interest rate decisions, and the other important macroeconomic data. The next week’s schedule of macroeconomic data is mentioned below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 2 May 2022 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI -April | Japan |
| 2 May 2022 | Consumer Confidence- April | Japan |
| 2 May 2022 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI- April | US |
| 3 May 2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI- April | GB |
| 4 May 2022 | S&P Global Service PMI- April | US |
| 4 May 2022 | Exp/Imp- Trade Balance | US |
| 4 May 2022 | US Fed Monetary Policy Decision | US |
| 5 May 2022 | Caixin Service PMI- April | China |
| 5 May 2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Service PMI- April | GB |
| 5 May 2022 | BoE Interest Rate Decision | GB |
| 5 May 2022 | US Jobless Claim | US |
| 5 May 2022 | Tokyo Core CPI | Japan |
| 6 May 22 | Non-farm Payroll- April | US |
Russia- Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine war enters its 66 days and has become more intensified now. The hope of getting a diplomatic solution through peace talk has become dimmed, as lifting sanctions imposed on Russia is a part of peace negotiations between the two countries. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy appealed to Russian soldiers to stop fighting in Ukraine. The uncertainty of the Ukraine war will continue, and this will impact the global stock markets in the coming week too.
Crude Oil Price
The volatility in the crude oil prices is due to the Ukraine war and it will persist until the war subsidize. Last week, Brent crude July futures prices fluctuated almost $10 per barrel. However, in the last few weeks it was hovering around $105 and weekly basis it fluctuates around 10- 15%.
With the disappointment of US GDP data, the strength in the dollar, and Chinese demand concerns due to covid, we feel the Brent crude prices could restrict a rally of above $110-$114 per barrel in the coming week.
Nifty & Bank Nifty prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16800 to 17600 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Negative.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 35000 to 37400. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Negative.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates.
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
India has reported 3688 new covid infections in the last 24 hrs with 50 fatalities on Sunday. The active cases are now increased to 18684, which comprises 0.04 percent of the total infection according to the Union Health Ministry. In Delhi, covid cases are rising the most, reported with over 1000 daily cases for the eighth consecutive day.
In India, the most worrying sign is the rising positivity rate and at present Delhi records 5.28 percent. A positivity rate above 5 percent is considered critical, soon we may see some restrictions in our national capital. This may be again negative for the market, and traders must closely watch out for it.
On the global front, Shanghai reported no new covid cases on Friday in the quarantine zone, signaling a declining sign of the new wave. China’s capital Beijing has also announced strict control measures across the city’s crowded areas during the four-day May Day holiday. Any covid-related positive news from China can cheer the investors next week.
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were sellers in the Indian equity markets whereas Domestic Investors were the buyers during the week. FIIs sold Rs 11446.52 crore while DIIs bought Rs 9703.04 crore during the week ended 29 April 2022.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in April 2022, withdrawing more than 40K during the month. With this, the FIIs remained net sellers for seven months now and withdrawn around 1.88 lakh crore from the Indian equity markets. These are largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Fed, geopolitical crisis, volatility in crude oil prices, high inflation rate, and weak quarterly results.
As the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes are already priced in by the markets, traders need to closely watch the FII’s action after the Fed’s meeting outcome.
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