Stock Market Prediction Next Week (18- 22 July 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (18- 22 July 2022): Indian stock markets registered losses for the week ended 15 July. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty fell more than 1 percent during the week, you can read last week’s market analysis here. In the coming week, quarterly earnings, global cues, crude oil, and the rupee will remain focused and set the market direction. The other key factors that are likely to influence the market next week are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (18- 22 July 2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty trend and prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16500 to 15700 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Positive with cautious bias.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 35800 to 33700. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Positive.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Q1 FY23 Earnings
Earnings announcements from Indian corporates will remain in focus in the coming week. On Saturday, HDFC Bank announces its Q1GFY23 earnings, its profit rises 19% YoY basis to 9196 crores. Though its profit missed analysts’ expectations, NII increased and NPA was reduced.
On Monday market will first react to the HDFC earnings, the other corporates (NIfty 50 stocks) that are going to announce their Q1FY23 earnings in the coming week are given below.
| Q1FY23 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 19 Jul 2022 | HDFC Life |
| 19 Jul 2022 | HUL |
| 20 Jul 2022 | IndusInd bank |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Wipro |
| 22 Jul 2022 | JSW Steel |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Reliance |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Ultracemco |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week global markets were closed mixed. The major global markets traded negatively throughout the week except for the last day. Anticipation of higher inflation data ahead of the report released in the US, possible aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, and the resurgence of Covid cases in China weigh on the market sentiments.
On Friday the European and US markets rallied due to robust bank quarterly earnings reports, positive economic data in the US, and ease of aggressive rate interest rate hikes by the Fed.
In the coming week, China will announce the prime loan rate on Monday followed by the Bank of Japan and the European central bank on Thursday. The other important economic data that are likely to set the market trends in the coming week are given below
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 19 July 2022 | Unemployment Rate May | GB |
| 20-July -2022 | Loan Prime rate | China |
| 20-July -2022 | Inflation rate | GB |
| 21-July -2022 | BoJ interest rate decision | Japan |
| 21-July -2022 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp June | Japan |
| 21-July -2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 21-July -2022 | ECB Interest rate decision | EU |
| 22-July -2022 | Gfk consumer confidence | GB |
| 22-July -2022 | Inflation rate | Japan |
| 22-July -2022 | Jibun Bank PMI Flash July | Japan |
| 22-July -2022 | Retail Sales | US |
| 22-July -2022 | S&P Global/CIPS July PMI Flash | GB |
| 22-July -2022 | S&P Global July PMI FalshGB | US |
Crude Oil Price
The crude oil prices gained more than 2 percent on Friday. The Brent crude September future closed at $101.13 per barrel and fell over 5 percent on a weekly basis. The recovery in the crude oil prices was mainly due to ease in recession fear and tight oil supply.
On Friday, a US official told Reuters that an immediate Saudi oil output boost was not expected, investors are now eyeing the next OPEC+ meeting in the coming month on August 3, to increase oil output. We may see a bounce back in crude oil prices next week which can be negative for the Indian markets.
Monsoon Impact
This time the monsoon season can bring much-needed relief to the country by easing the inflationary pressure. If the monsoon remains on track and equally distributed, can reduce the inflationary pressure near the RBI comfort zone by October-November.
But the country is facing an uneven monsoon so far, which may have affected the sowing of Kharif crops. According to metrologists and agriculture experts, it is too early to panic about production, food security, and inflation. Traders need to keep updated about the progress of the monsoon in the country.
Weakness in Indian Rupee
Markets will closely watch out for the movement of the rupee against the US dollar next week. The Indian rupee continues to remain weak against the US dollar for the fifth straight session of Friday. The rupee hits a fresh record low of 79.96 against the dollar on 15 July and hovered near the psychological weak level of 80 per dollar.
Forex experts are in a view that the domestic currency is likely to trade weak in the coming days as the US dollar index continues to rise ahead of the ECB and Fed meetings in the upcoming weeks. Traders should remain cautious next week as market sentiments may become negative if the Indian rupee closes above 80 against a dollar.
Domestic Economic Data
According to the RBI data showed, the Indian Foreign exchange reserve fell by $8 billion in the week ended July 8 to $580.25 billion, the lowest in 15 months. This is the largest weekly decline since April 1, when reserves had dropped by $11.17 billion. This may negatively impact the equity market on Monday next week.
According to the CMIE report of 15 July, the unemployment rate is falling gradually in July. The trend has been reversed in the current month, after the steep fall in the employment rate in the previous month.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell in the Indian equity markets, although at a slower pace, due to ease in commodity prices and recovery in the domestic market. During the week, FIIs sold only Rs 5916.01 crore while DIIs bought Rs 2146 crore in the equity markets cash segment.
So far in the month of July, FIIs sold 10459 crores while DIIs bought more than FIIs selling figure of Rs 7367.04 crore in the equity cash segment. Though DIIs are supporting the domestic markets from sharp correction, the market volatility will continue as long as FIIs are the seller in Indian equity markets.
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