Stock Market Prediction Next Week (10- 14 July 2023)

 

Stock Market Prediction Next Week (10- 14 July 2023): Indian stock markets trimmed some early-week gains on Friday but ended the week with decent gains. The domestic markets started the week in an optimistic mode due to upbeat economic data, strong FIIs inflow, and good progress in monsoon rains. However, the upside remained capped due to weak global cues.

In the coming week, Indian markets will be focusing on quarterly earnings and macroeconomic data. The domestic and global inflation and industrial production data will be in focus next week. The progress in monsoon, crude oil price, and FIIs inflow are also likely to influence the Indian stock markets during the week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.

 

Stock Market Prediction Next Week (10-14 July 2023) 

 

Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction

 

On Friday, the Nifty witnessed resistance near the 19500 zone, and heavy profit booking dragged down the index to close near the 19350 zone. This has again changed the bias and sentiment turning into a cautious approach to some extent. 

Once again, Nifty took the near-term support zone near 19300 levels, whereas the upside target remains intact at 19800-19900 levels, and select stocks continue to show momentum with strength. On a weekly basis, the Nifty index could trade in a range of 19000-19600

The Bank Nifty index also witnessed profit booking after resisting near the 45400 zone and declined to close near the low of 44900 levels with bias turning a little bit cautious. 

The important levels for the Bank Nifty index will remain intact with near-term support at around 44500 levels while on the upside, the index has the potential to go further till the 46200-46400 zone if a decisive breach above 45500 is sustained. Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 44000-46000 levels during the week.

 

You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1

 

Macroeconomic Data

 

According to the RBI data showed on Friday, India’s forex reserves rose by $1.85 billion to $595.05 billion. The domestic markets will be closely watching for inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to experts, June’s inflation data is likely to remain flat compared to May even though the food prices accelerated, the inflation rate will remain the same like May due to stable energy costs. 

The output of the Eight Core sectors grew 4.3% YoY in May and the Eight Core Industries – comprise 40.27 percent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), so we can assume some growth in IIP numbers in May. The other macroeconomic data that are likely to influence the domestic stock markets are given below.

 

Economic Data Next Week
12 July 2023	CPI Inflation Data – June
12 July 2023	Industrial Production – IIP Production May
14 July 2023	WPI Inflation Data -June
14 July 2023	Bank Loan and Deposit Growth June
14 July 2023	Balance of Trade Export & Import June
14 July 2023	Foreign Exchange Reserve

 

Quarterly Earnings

 

The first quarter’s earning season will start next week. India’s largest software exporter TCS will kick off the Q1FY24 earning session on Wednesday followed by HCL Tech. Wipro will announce its first-quarter results on Thursday. 

Market experts are of the view that most IT services companies will report a weak set of numbers for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 (Q1FY24). Usually, the first quarter happens to be the strongest quarter for IT companies; however, this time the scenario is different due to challenging macro conditions, and the pullback of projects is likely to impact the revenue growth of the companies. 

 

Progress in Monsoon

 

According to IMD, India is likely to receive an average amount of rain this year,  despite the likely emergence of the El Nino weather pattern and the delay in rains in June. The initial deficiency in the rain has been recovered in the first week of July. 

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said that most parts of the country would receive good rainfall in July, The monsoon is a crucial component of India’s $3 trillion economy, providing much-needed water to farms, replenishing reservoirs, and offering respite from the scorching summer heat. Traders should closely follow the progress in monsoonal rain in the coming week. 

 

Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week

 

The global stock market cues impacted negatively last week. The global markets turned negative after US Fed’s minutes were released last week and revealed more hikes are on the card this year. The strong economic data from the US further confirmed interest rate hikes for a long period to control inflation and that hit the market sentiments globally. The weak services activity data from China also weighed on the global market sentiments last week.

Next week, the global markets will focus on inflation and industrial production data. The global market sentiments are likely to improve in the coming week, as US inflation is likely to ease further. The other key factors that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction next week are given below

 

Important Global Macro Data Next Week
10 July 2023	Current Account-May	Japan
10 July 2023	Inflation Rate June CPI & PPI	China
11 July 2023	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY June	GB
11 July 2023	Unemployment Rate MAY	GB
12 July 2023	Machinery Order May	Japan
12 July 2023	PPI June	Japan
12 July 2023	Financial stability Report	GB
12 July 2023	Inflation Rate June, Core Inflation	US
13 July 2023	Balance of Trade Export & Import	China
13 July 2023	GDP MoM & YoY May	GB
13 July 2023	Industrial Production May	GB
13 July 2023	Balance of trade May	GB
13 July 2023	Industrial Production May	EA
13 July 2023	European Commission Economic Forecast	EA
13 July 2023	PPI June	US
13 July 2023	Core PPI June	US
13 July 2023	Jobless Claims	US
14 July 2023	Industrial Production May	Japan
14 July 2023	Balance Of Trade	EA
14 July 2023	Michigan Consumer sentiments	US
14 July 2023	Michigan Inflation Expectations	US
14 July 2023	Michigan Consumer Expectation	US

 

Crude Oil Prices

 

The crude oil prices rallied on Friday after the weaker-than-expected US job report in June, suggesting Fed could be less hawkish and could avoid recession. The US crude oil price is now trading at one month high and could see a rally after two months of consolidation. Saudi Arabia’s production cut starting in July and the decline in US oil inventories could be other reasons for a rally in crude prices.

On a weekly basis, US-based WTI  crude oil was up 4.6%, while London-based Brent crude oil rose 4.8% during the week. Though crude oil was in demand last week, the slowdown in China and US inflation could further cap the oil price. Investors should closely monitor the US inflation and economic data from China next week to gauge the crude oil price direction. Higher crude oil prices could put a break on the domestic market rally next week.

 

FII & DIIs flow

 

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in the Indian equity markets, they bought Rs 9164.85 crore worth of shares in the equity cash segment during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were turned into net sellers last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 6878.18 crore. 

The equity benchmark indices hit a new record high with the support of strong FIIs inflow last week. However, the DIIs sold a substantial amount in the equity cash segment last week. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs & DIIs activity in the coming week, as the DIIs selling spree could be a concern and limit the market upsides.

 

Conclusion:

 

The short-term healthy correction or profit booking at higher levels is expected in the markets next week. The overall market trend will remain positive. Some improvement in the global market sentiments is also expected in the coming week after a sharp fall last week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.

 

If you like the post “Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 10-14 July 2023)” please share it with the others.

 

You may also like to read,  Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 10 July 2023

Stock Market Analysis for the Week (3-7 July 2023)

Happy Investing!!

Editor’s Desk